Добавил:
Upload Опубликованный материал нарушает ваши авторские права? Сообщите нам.
Вуз: Предмет: Файл:

iif_kpmp_Borsellino_Day_Trader_s_Course.pdf

.pdf
Скачиваний:
189
Добавлен:
28.02.2016
Размер:
3 Мб
Скачать
☆

RESOURCES

Economic Calendar

A number of economic reports are released every month that may potentially impact the market. Traders typically analyze these reports for what is now happening economically, as well as a glimpse of what it might mean for the future.

Auto and Truck Sales: Released by automakers from first to third business day of the month. Minimal market impact.

Business Inventories: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time on about the 15th of each month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. Report includes sales and inventory from manufacturing, wholesale, and retail stages. But much of the data has been released by the time this report is issued. Retail inventory component, however, is watched. Minimal market impact.

Chicago Purchasing Managers: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time on the last business day of the month. One the most closely watched regional manufacturing surveys (along with Philadelphia Fed Index). Compiled with input from purchasing managers and Federal Reserve banks. Often seen as an indicator of the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) report.

Construction Spending: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time on the first business day of the month. Compiled by the Department of Com-

197

198

RESOURCES

merce. Report reflects residential, nonresidential, and public expenditures on new construction. Little or no market impact.

Consumer Confidence: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time on the last Tuesday of the month. Compiled by the Conference Board. Based on monthly survey of 5,000 households to ascertain consumer confidence. This report can help predict shifts in consumption patterns. Some market impact.

Consumer Price Index (CPI): Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time on about the 13th of the month. Compiled by the Department of Labor. CPI measures prices of a fixed market basket of goods and consumables purchased by consumers. This report has a definite market impact given its role as an inflation indicator.

Durable Goods Orders: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time on about the 26th of the month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. Measures dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (that have an intended life span of three years or more). This report is watched as a leading indicator of manufacturing activity.

Employment Report: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time on the first Friday of the month. This very influential and widely watched report is compiled by the Department of Labor. The Employment Report (which also goes by the names of “Non-Farm Payroll” and the “Unemployment Report”) reflects two separate reports that result from two separate surveys. The household survey is of 60,000 households, which is used for the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is of 375,000 businesses, and is used for nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings. Potentially large impact on the market.

Existing Home Sales: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time around the 25th of the month. Compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The report reflects sales of existing homes and gives an indication of housing sector activity. Minimal market impact.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

199

Factory Orders: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time around the first business day of the month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. Consists of earlier announced durable goods plus nondurable goods orders. Little or no market impact.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): The FOMC meetings are widely watched and anticipated. The FOMC has 12 members and holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. The role of the FOMC is to direct the lending policies of the Federal Reserve, which in turn governs prevailing interest rates and helps to spur or slow down economic growth. The actions of the FOMC are highly influential on the market. They include rate cuts and rate hikes, statements regarding its bias toward future actions, and virtually any comment regarding the U.S. economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time the third or fourth week of the month for prior quarter. Subsequent revisions released in the second and third months of the quarter. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. GDP report is a broad measure of economic activity, including growth rate for total economic output. While this is a backward-looking reading, it is widely watched and can have significant market impact.

Housing Starts/Building Permits: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time around the 16th of the month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. Housing starts measures the number of residential units for which construction has begun. Market watches this report.

Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization: Released at 9:15 A.M. Eastern time around the 15th of each month. Report compiled by Federal Reserve. Industrial production index measures physical output of U.S. factories, mines, and utilities. Capacity utilization gives some indication of economic strength, since it measures the amount of slack capacity available. Minimal market impact.

Initial Claims: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time each Thursday. Report compiled by the Department of Labor. Initial jobless claims

200

RESOURCES

measure filings for state jobless benefits, which may give an indication for the economy regarding job growth or contraction. Minimal market impact.

International Trade, Import/Export: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time around the 20th of each month. Report compiled by the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. This report is important for insights into the overall trade balances, as well as trends in imports/exports of goods and services. The monthly trade balance can also influence the GDP forecasts. Typically has little market impact.

Leading Indicators: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time in the first few days of the month. Compiled by the Conference Board. This report reflects previously announced economic indicators including new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices. Very little market impact or interest.

National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM): Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time on the first business day of the month for the prior month. This report, which is usually closely watched by the market, is a national survey of purchasing managers regarding new orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export/import orders, and related topics.

New Home Sales: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time around the last business day of the month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. Report reflects single-family homes sold and for sale. Minimal market impact.

Personal Income Consumption: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time around the first business day of the month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. Report measures income from all sources, including wages and salaries, and is used as indication for closely watched Employment Report. Also gives some indication of consumer demand. Some market interest and impact.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

201

Philadelphia Fed Index: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time on the third Thursday of the month. One of the widely watched regional manufacturing surveys, along with the Chicago Purchasing Managers index. Compiled by purchasing managers’ organizations and Federal Reserve banks. Often viewed as an indicator for the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) report.

Producer Price Index (PPI): Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time around the 11th of the month. Report compiled by Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. PPI measures prices of goods at wholesale level, in the “crude,” “intermediate,” and “finished” categories. Finished goods index can be market-moving, as it reflects prices for goods that are ready to be sold to consumers.

Productivity and Costs: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time around the 7th of the second month of each quarter. Compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. This measures productivity of workers and associated costs. The unit labor cost index can be marketmoving during times of inflation, but otherwise this report seldom has market impact.

Retail Sales: Released at 8:30 A.M. Eastern time around the 13th of the month. Compiled by the Department of Commerce. This report measures total receipts of retail stores, the results of which are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Some market impact.

Wholesale Trade: Released at 10:00 A.M. Eastern time around the fifth business day of the month. Compiled by Census Bureau, Department of Commerce. Report includes wholesale sales and inventory, but does not include personal consumption. Has little or no market impact.

Glossary

Advance-decline index: The ratio of advancing stocks to declining stocks. Over time, this index gives an indication of where the broad market has been going, a trend that is sometimes masked by indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which contains just 30 stocks.

Arbitrage: The simultaneous purchase and sale of identical or equivalent financial instruments or commodity futures in order to benefit from a discrepancy in their price relationship.

Ask: Also called “offer.” This indicates a willingness to sell a futures contract at a given price.

Back months: The futures or options on futures months being traded that are the furthest from expiration. Also called deferred or distant months.

Bar chart: A graph of prices, volume, and open interest for a specified time period used by the chartist to forecast market trends. A daily bar chart plots each trading session’s high, low, and settlement prices.

Basis: The local cash market price minus the price of the nearby futures contract.

203