Комплект экзаменационных текстов по экономическому переводу Государственный экзамен

(весна 2012)

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Batten down the hatches, it’s going to be a stormy recovery

IF AMERICANS have learned anything from their recovery, it is that nothing can be taken for granted. Growth may deliver new jobs, or it may not. Recovery may be under way, but a crisis on the other side of the Atlantic could derail it. A first estimate put growth in the last three months of 2010 at a 3.2% annualised pace. The economic expansion appeared to be accelerating. Or maybe not. On February 25th the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised GDP growth down to just 2.8%, scarcely more than the 2.6% performance in the third quarter.

Several factors contributed to the revision. Imports grew more, and personal consumption less, than originally reported. Of the 0.4 percentage points trimmed from the GDP estimate, about half was attributable to local government austerity. And because high unemployment is lingering, these governments will have to deal with bigger budget gaps for longer than they expected. Cuts to government programmes will add public employees to the ranks of the jobless, complicating the unemployment picture.

Unlike most states, the federal government is not obliged to balance its budget, and deficits have reached record levels recently. The rise in public debt complicates a long-run budget picture. But there is no immediate crisis. Given the weakness of the recovery, adoption of a credible plan to address deficits over the next few years is the safest course of action.

Under different circumstances the economy could weather the political storm, but global markets are generating their own headwinds. Continuing unrest around the Middle East threatens to disrupt oil supplies even as global recovery boosts petroleum demand.

Despite all this, America’s recovery is getting stronger. February brought news of faster manufacturing activity and rising consumer confidence. But Americans have learned to expect setbacks. In that, at least, 2011 is unlikely to disappoint.

The Economist March 2011

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Japan debt to rise if tax revenue falls

Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said that plummeting tax receipts will likely force the government to sell more new debt in the current fiscal year.

More bond sales will further inflate Japan’s national debt, the highest among advanced economies at roughly 170% of gross domestic product, a measure of all economic activity in a nation. That could result in higher long-term interest rates and threaten the country’s economic recovery.

“It is possible for the central government’s tax revenue to fall below 40 trillion yen ($442 billion), well below the forecast of 46 trillion yen made nearly a year ago,” Mr. Fujii said. “This is due to the global recession that began last year, and we will deal with this through the additional issuance of government securities,” he said.

Mr. Fujii also said the government wouldn’t use the 2.926 trillion yen it saved through restructuring the previous cabinet’s extra budget to meet the shortfall in tax revenue. Instead, these funds will be spent on the steps to support households, either in the current fiscal year ending March or he next fiscal year, he said.

Mr. Fujii’s comments may add to speculation that the new Japanese government, which is focused on jump-starting the country’s sluggish consumer spending and has yet to come up with a fiscal-overhaul plan, is not prioritizing government debt reduction.

While Mr. Fujii declined to estimate how much more debt would be sold, analysts expect the amount may be near the anticipated tax-revenue shortfall of six trillion yen or more. That would bring the total new bond issuance for this fiscal year to a record 50 trillion yen or higher.

Such views have driven investors to sell Japanese government debt recently on concerns that more supply will make Japanese government bonds less valuable.

The Wall Street Journal October 2009

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