Заключение

В заключение хотелось бы отметить главные ошибки, допускаемые при перевозке груза.

Самая главная ошибка при закупке логистических услуг – это стремление части заказчиков сэкономить в ущерб качеству. Такое спрос и подпитывает огромную «серую» зону рынка. Зачастую заказчики соглашаются на перевозку без каких-либо гарантий со стороны исполнителя, но за минимальную плату.

Вторая ошибка – заказчик обговаривает не все условия перевозки. Он может просто не знать многих нюансов: особенности конкретного вида транспорта, страхования грузов, маршрут доставки и многое другое. Недобросовестный перевозчик просто не будет говорить про них и уточнять подробности при заключении сделки. В результате срывают сроки или повреждают груз.

Решить эти проблемы поможет единая интернет-платформа, на которой заказчики смогут размещать заявки с описанием условий доставки, получать предложения от перевозчиков и выбирать лучшее. В рамках такой системы поставщики будут конкурировать друг с другом за заказы и раскрывать информацию о своих возможностях.

Рынок корпоративной логистики должен развиваться по аналогии с рынком такси, который за последнее время благодаря мобильным приложениям и целенаправленной политике крупных игроков стал гораздо цивилизованнее.

Сегодня есть множество порталов и бирж логистических услуг, но по своим возможностям это скорее интернет-форумы, а не торговые системы. Решить проблему сможет торговая площадка, созданная с учетом реалий рынка логистики и ошибок других проектов. Рынку необходима регламентированная среда по примеру корпоративных закупок с едиными базовыми правилами для всех участников торгов.

Крупные игроки к этому готовы. На отечественном рынке уже сейчас успешно работают крупнейшие перевозчики, которые участвуют в закупочных процедурах государственных и частных компаний. Недоверие других участников рынка поможет преодолеть удобство и эффективность такого инструмента получения заказов. Например, мобильное приложение позволит водителям и диспетчерам искать грузы «на ходу». В перспективе это снизит зависимость отрасли от посредников, а также исключит серые схемы доставки без каких-либо гарантий и страхования грузов.

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Introduction. Enterprise Risk Management is based on the concept of acceptable risk, postulates the possibility of a rational influence on the risk level, bringing and keeping this level within acceptable limits. The risk is an objective reality projects involving all phases and stages of its development and implementation.

In the context of the need for modernization of industrial enterprises, the production of non-competitive products and the increased volatility in the market environment to study methods and tools for risk management of investment projects of industrial enterprises, adequate requirements of modern market economy is one of the important tasks of the Russian economy.

Purpose of the article - to explore the history of the development of risk management.

The history of the development of risk management. The word "risk" has ancient roots - translated from the Old Italian «risicare» means "dare". The history of the concept of "risk" is largely associated with the relationship of man to the future.

In ancient Greece mythological worldview was based on the fact that the future is completely predetermined by the will and desire of the gods, that is, It does not depend on the behavior of the person.

The emergence of world religions and especially Christianity, has led to what the future has become ambiguous. There was an understanding that the possibility of "different" future in this life and after death depends on human behavior. Therefore, there was responsibility for the consequences of their actions [3, p. 16].

In the Middle Ages there was the realization that the future depends not only on God. One of those who first raised the issue, was an Italian monk, professor of mathematics credited Luke, who lived in the XV century. In the Renaissance, it began a serious study of the problems associated with risk. Thanks to the development of gambling and especially dice the opportunity to predict the future. Exploring gambling, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal and inventor in 1654 appealed to the Fermat math. The cooperation was established the theory of probability. It was a huge jump in philosophical and practical, for the first time allowed to make quantitative predictions of the future. Since then, forecasting tools, such as divination, sacrifice and blissful delirium began to retreat into the past.

At the beginning of the XVIII century. German mathematician G. Leibniz put forward the idea, and Ya.Bernulli Swiss mathematician (1654-1705) proved the law of large numbers and developed a statistical procedure. Since 1725, when the first government of England were used mortality tables, this tool has spread rapidly throughout the world.

In 1730 the French mathematician A. Moivre introduced the concept of the structure of a normal distribution and a measure of risk - standard deviation. In 1738 Bernoulli determined the expected utility, which ultimately rests the modern theory of portfolio investments. Since 1763, thanks to Bayes' theorem (Theorem hypotheses), the world learned how to influence the decision-making level of awareness about the management of the facility.

The discovery of the basic laws and the development of almost all modern risk management tools related to XVII-XVIII centuries.

The industrial revolution, social upheaval, the expansion of human activities have significantly increased the scope of manifestation of risk and simultaneously formed to the future as a part of the projected world. Note, in particular, the development of the theory of statistical regression English mathematician F.Galtonom in 1886

Risk is inherent in any area of ​​human activity that is associated with a variety of conditions and factors affecting the outcome (positive or negative) decisions taken by the people. The risk of shortfall in the expected results began to manifest itself particularly when the universality of commodity-money relations, competition, economic actors. Sufficiently broad and constructive interpretation of the risk at the same time began to be used in insurance, as this area of ​​business is directly related to the existence and manifestation of various forms of risk. It is because insurance is an understanding of risk as an economic category.

With the emergence and development of a market economy, there are various theories of risk. One of the first challenges of economic risks considered American economist A. Marshall, whose works marked the beginning of the neoclassical theory of risk. American economist John. M. Keynes introduced to science the notion of "risk appetite", describing the investment and business risks, offered one of the first classifications of risk.

The work of American economist F.Nayta "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" was first suggested as a quantitative measure of the risk of uncertainty. In the works of American mathematicians O. Morgenstern and John. Neumann has been established relationship concepts of "uncertainty" and "risk", reflected probabilistic and mathematical treatment of risk.

At the beginning of XX century. classic management theory French engineer A. Fayolle included into the basic functions of management of the organization to ensure its safety function.

 Another key aspect of the theory of risk are: the development of the theory of portfolio management G.Markovitsem American economist in 1952 .; G.Modilyani work on the theory of investment; N.Bleyka M.Sholsa work and on financial options; Many other researchers and practical development of many new financial instruments that have so changed the face of opportunities and the financial markets.

   Finally, the science of risk emerged only in the last quarter of XX century. thanks primarily to the practical needs of safety in the technosphere (in particular, nuclear power and other potentially dangerous technologies) and the stability of social reproduction in the economy.

   In Russia in the 20s. XX century. It was adopted legislation containing the concept of the economic risk. But by the mid-1930s. the risk was related to the phenomena of capitalist economy, since it is not combined with the proclaimed planned nature of the economy. Ignoring the problem has reached such a degree of risk that the concept of "risk" does not even include in encyclopedias. The concept of "risk" is explained only in Russian language dictionaries. However, international experience shows that ignoring or underestimating economic risk in the development of tactics and strategy of economic policy, making specific decisions inevitably constrains the development of society, scientific and technological progress.

   Once again, the emergence of interest in Russian to the manifestation of risk in economic activity due to its transition to a market economy. After the de-monopolization and privatization, the state has allowed to develop freely entrepreneurship, while refusing to support the role of the sole risk and shift the responsibility for economic decisions taken at business entities. However, their survival without risk factors is not possible.

In the context of the economic crisis is increasingly a problem of alternative costs; changes in development strategies; review the objectives, methods and means of operation of the company. The important components of productive and continuous operation of the company is risk management.

Economic operators are taking different strategic models to eliminate all kinds of unforeseen costs.

Project risk management is seen as an integral part of the project management process, and the history of these disciplines are inextricably linked to each other.

Milestones in the formation of the theory of project management for the past five decades, helping to identify the most significant moments in the development of risk management mechanism of the project.

The historical aspect of the study contributes to the current state of the theory of risk management of the project and the prospects of its development.

Modern set of methods of project management dates back to the 50s of XX century. The most important step is the development of methods of scheduling. The importance of planning, supply chain management and administration provided the basis for the formation of the theory of project management.

Continue in the 60s of the last century, the development of methods of project management is particularly influenced the establishment of administrative structures and formation methods of teamwork, which have been introduced in the management of production in the '70s. In the 80-ies of XX century were developed and began to be successfully applied new ideas of modeling projects and workflow automation. The basis of this was the development of computer technology.

The rapid emergence of quality management methods also influenced the content of the theory of project management.

Impetus to the development of modern methods of risk management was the quantification of the risk that was given in the early 80-ies S. Kaplan and BJ Garrick [1, p. 44]. The risk, in their view, is composed of three parts: a description of the scenario, the probability of this scenario and the consequences of 15 in this scenario, with the consequences may vary according to the same scenario. In the mid 80's mechanism of risk management began to be widely discussed in the literature on project management. It formed a risk management process, which then consisted of risk identification, risk assessment, develop responses and control [2, p. 94].

 Quantitative Risk Assessment, mainly was based on subjective probabilities and distributions. In industry, the basis of risk management was to analyze the possibility of monetary and time losses.

Widely used diagrams impacts, checklists and risk questionnaires, methods for dealing with risky situations and important principles for the allocation of risks in the construction contracts. During the 90-ies the basis of the theory of project management has been the introduction of network technologies, methods of cooperation and business process management as a project.

The rapid development of international business, quality improvement and reduce the cost of information technology and data transmission technologies have opened new opportunities to manage projects in a geographically distributed business environment. At the same time it changed the concept of risk management.

The transformation took place towards greater understanding of the importance of risk management, rather than a quantitative risk analysis. Thus, the process of risk management and its integration into the project management process are now the basis for further development of the risk management framework.

By the end of 90-ies of XX century new methods of risk management, based on a study of the implementation of previous projects and develop solutions based on the experience of reducing the adverse events vozdeyst16 tions to an acceptable level. That is the knowledge accumulated about failed projects or adverse situations and effects are used for the study and understanding of the causes of negative situations, losses associated with them, and response to reduce the consequences.

Under the risk management project is now understood as a complex pre-planned activities aimed at identifying possible adverse situations and reduction of their possible impact on the project to an acceptable level.

Current direction of scientific development theory of project risk management is presented in the form of improving the creative approaches and approaches related to the study of risk management experience.

One way to improve the effectiveness of these approaches - is the use in the process of risk management of computer databases that must include not only the listing of risks, but also valuable information about retaliation on the occurrence of a particular risk situation, information on the planning of risk management and other information to take concrete decisions in the risk management process of the project.

Formation of these databases comes continuously throughout the project on the basis obtain information on risks and responses. A risk information is valuable time when its formation is carried out in real time, helped by a database of risks. The history of the theory of risk management of the project shows that the current decade will be more likely to improve existing approaches to risk management based on modern concepts and ideas, and this is confirmed by the increased interest of scientists to problem Risk Management project.

The author was considered a significant number of publications on the topic of risk management, published in Russia in the past five years. On the basis of the analysis, it was concluded that the vast majority of publications are based on earlier proposals made in the early and mid-90s of the last century. This contributed to the treatment to foreign experience and, therefore, the methodological basis of this study are basically the largest to date, publicly available methodological approaches to risk management of the project (the program), which have been developed in different countries [4, p. 15].

Sorry, could not find public information resources related to risk management in the implementation of construction projects only, but one containing a methodical approach developed by Finnish experts from the institute VTT Building Technology. Currently, however, there are universal guidelines for risk management, are intended for all kinds of projects [5, p. 33].

Moreover, a comparison of data to study the recommendations and specific advice such as the recommendation of NASA, ECSS, DoD et al., Showed that currently develops a typical risk management mechanism that does not depend on the type of project (program).

In the study of modern concepts of risk management, the authors used a comparative analysis as a basis for the study. This method of scientific knowledge is the most efficient in the framework of this thesis research. This is due to the fact that the analysis refers to the separation of methodological aЙpproaches that are the prototype of this study, the relatively small elements and a comprehensive study of them.

 This comparison allows you to find the similarities of elements that show the general trends of development of the theory of risk management. On the basis of what, by analogy, constructed conclusions and suggestions in improving risk management mechanism. Through a comparative analysis, the authors identified the major differences in the majority of these approaches. It mainly is the fact that at present there was not yet a recognized sequence of steps in the risk management process.

Systematization of collected data for risk management of the project suggested that in the process of risk management, the following targeted actions: planning, identification, evaluation, treatment, monitoring, documentation.

No only recognized risk management function names, but the essence and the content remains unchanged. Common to most of the studied guidelines that make up the methodological basis of the thesis is the proposal to technology identification and assessment of risks, as well as the main methods of processing.

Risk identification is proposed to carry through checklists and on the basis of interviews with experts. And the typical sources of risk checklists and questionnaires, as a rule, are an integral part of the recommendations.

As a general rule, by means of the matrix "Lost Chance," it proposed to assess the quality or level of risk, or their degree of influence on the project. Only one methodical approach [5, p. 40] contains a qualitative assessment of the technology as the impact of risks on the project and their level.

A quantitative risk assessment is most studied approach is seen as assessment of changes in the cost and duration of the project due to the impact on them of risk factors, by simulation of various negative consequences of the offensive situations.

However, the approach of Finnish experts contains a methodology for quantifying the degree of negative impact on the earnings situation of the project, which is based on subjective judgments about the likelihood of risky situations and the amount of loss in the event of their occurrence.

Currently, there are four basic ways of handling risk: acceptance, transfer, mitigation, avoidance. The differences appear as part of specific measures, which include the main ways, and there is no a clear classification of methods of processing risks.

Introduction. Financial Management always puts the receipt of income depending on the risk. Risk and income are two interrelated and interdependent financial categories.

Under the risk is the possible danger of losses arising from the specificity of certain natural phenomena and human activities.

For the financial manager risk - is the likelihood of an unfavorable outcome. Various investment projects have varying degrees of risk, the most profitable option of investing can be so risky, that, as they say, "the game is not worth the candle."

In the context of the need for risk analysis of companies and the increased volatility in the market environment to study methods and risk management mechanisms is shown one of the important tasks of the Russian economy.

The purpose of the essay - to investigate the prospects for the development of risk management.

Prospects for the development of risk management theory and practice.

Risk as an economic category is a possibility of the event that may entail three economic result: negative (loss, damage, loss); null; positive (gain, gain, gain) [1, p. 39].

Risk - this action to be taken in the hope of a happy outcome on a "lucky - unlucky". Of course, the risk can be avoided that simply avoid activities associated with risk. However, for the entrepreneur, according B.C.Stupakova, GS Tokarenko, avoid risk often constitute a waiver of possible profit [4, p. 49].

Risk can be controlled, ie, use a variety of measures to a certain extent, to predict the risk events and take action to reduce risks. The effectiveness of the risk management organization is largely determined by the risk classification.

risk situation - a situation in which the probability of occurrence of the events can be defined, ie in this case, there is an opportunity to objectively assess the likelihood of events that may have an impact on the technical and economic indicators of production.

The main sources of risk are:

1) the unpredictability, spontaneity of natural processes and phenomena;

2) an accident of social processes;

3) the presence of the opposing trends clash of conflicting interests in market conditions;

4) the unpredictable nature of scientific and technological progress.

The essence of risk, as well as any economic category, is shown in its functions. In this paper, MG Lapusta, LG Sharshukovoy "Risks in business" the following risk features are: innovation, regulatory, protective and analysis [2, p. 45].

Innovative risk function performs a stimulating search of unconventional ways of solving problems faced by the entrepreneur. In the international business practice has accumulated positive experience of innovative risk management. Most firms, companies succeed and become competitive through innovative economic activities related to the risk.

The regulatory function is inconsistent and appears in two forms: the destructive and creative.

entrepreneur risk, as a rule, is focused on obtaining significant results in unconventional ways. Thereby, it allows you to overcome the conservatism, dogmatism, conservatism, psychological barriers to promising innovations.

The creative form of regulatory risk function is manifested in the fact that the ability to take risks - one of the ways to the success of the enterprise.

However, the risk can be a manifestation of workers' discontent, if the decision is made unnecessarily. In this case it acts as a risk factor destabilizing.

Protective risk function is manifested in the fact that if the risk for the entrepreneur - a natural state, the normal should be tolerant attitude to failure.

apply various techniques to reduce the level of risk. The most common are:

1. diversification;

2. The acquisition of additional information on selecting and results;

3. limitation;

4. The self-insurance;

5. insurance;

The risk of the economy is defined as the probability (threat) now losing some of their resources, revenue, or the appearance of additional costs resulting from the implementation of specific operational and financial performance [3, p. 33].

In the West, even in the relatively stable economic conditions, economic entities is seriously concerned with risk management. At the same time in the Russian economy, where factors of economic instability and without complicating effective management of enterprises, problems of analysis and management of complex risks that arise in the course of their economic activity, given the apparent lack of attention. Until recently, such a situation prevailed not only in the enterprises of the real sector of the economy, but also in financial and credit institutions. According to E. Stanislavchik, close attention to the issue of risk management has been given only after the financial crisis, which clearly outlined the acuteness of this problem in Russia [3, p. 34].

In the real economy, which is characterized by long-term projects, lack of investment, low turnover, and return on assets, the relatively low level of economic literacy of administrative staff, the situation is changing slowly. This leads to inefficient management of financial flows, the lack of forecasting the results of financial and economic activity, an erroneous strategic planning of enterprise development.

Risk management methods are very diverse. From the current practice at the moment can be seen quite clearly that the Russian experts, on the one hand, and Western researchers - on the other hand, have developed is quite clear preferences for methods of risk management. The presence of such preferences is primarily due to the nature of the economic development of the state and, as a consequence, considered risk groups. However, the development of economic relations in Russia contributes to the spread of Western experience, resulting in a convergence of Russian and Western approaches to the management and investigation of risks.

The choice of the optimal policy aimed at reducing the risk, is solved in the framework of microeconomic theory. The corresponding result reads: optimal risk management policy should be such that the marginal cost of implementation of this policy consistent with the marginal utility, delivered its application [2]. However, due to significant information requirements this principle difficult to implement in practice. In fact, it takes a more simple criteria such as minimum cost of risk reduction measures to an acceptable level.

In specific cases, the choice of risk reduction resources depends on his predictions. Thus, well-known, common risks can be reduced with the help of specially developed preventive measures. For example, the risk of losing part of the company's assets as a result of theft can be reduced by setting the alarm in warehouses, to improve the current system of accounting and control the storage and use of wealth. Foreseeable, but poorly controlled risks can be reduced through diversification of production and use of a reserve supply of system resources.

Each of these risk-reduction tool has both some advantages and disadvantages, so generally use a combination of these instruments "suppression" of risks.

The development of risk management science largely viewed from the perspective of the risks of financial institutions in a relatively stable economic environment. The need to consider the risks of industrial enterprises in the unstable political, economic and social conditions require adjustments to the current principles of risk management and further justification effectiveness of the risk analysis methods [4, p. 80].

Currently, there are two theory approach to determining the risk. In the first approach (Lapusta MG, Sharshukova LG) are based on the outcome of the event, and the risk is considered as an opportunity or a threat of rejection of the results of specific decisions or actions of the expected [2, p. 112]. The second approach (Stanislavchik E.) considered himself the risk of the phenomenon as an action aimed at achieving specific goals related to the elements of danger, threat of loss or failure [3, p. 33].

The main objective of risk management systems in any field is the most effective use of science and the limited funds available to make the results of the most predictable (that is, as far as possible to reduce uncertainty about the results of the data).

Analyzing the risk structure, it is possible to identify the main ways to change (ie. E. Control) due to the impact on the individual elements of risk. Removing at least one basic element entails the risk of extinction. By reducing the probability of a transition between the elements or the severity of the consequences, you can reduce the risk.

In fact, studies show B.C.Stupakova and GS Tokarenko, one of the main causes of ineffective risk management is the lack of clear and precise methodological foundations of this process. A study cited in the literature of the principles of risk management haphazard and piecemeal, and individual attempts to systematize the inherent set of controversial issues [4, p. 9].

All of the above leads to the conclusion that in order to effectively analyze all the variety of risks in the enterprise need to apply a set of methods, which, in turn, confirms the relevance of developing an integrated risk management framework.

In today's economic conditions, characterized by political, economic and social instability that exists in the enterprise management system must include a mechanism for risk management.

The first stage of the formation mechanism of risk management at the company is to provide risk management services. At the present stage of development of the Russian economy the purpose of this service is to minimize losses by monitoring the activity of the enterprise, analysis of all the factors riskoobrazuyuschih, make recommendations to mitigate risks and control over their implementation. It is important to determine the place of service in the organizational structure of the enterprise, to define the rights and responsibilities of its personnel and to inform employees about the service functions and the nature of its activity [4, p. 55].

The final stage of the development program is to develop a set of measures to reduce risks with an indication of the intended effect of their implementation, implementation deadlines, sources of funding and the persons responsible for the implementation of this program. The program must be approved by management and taken into account in the financial and operational planning [5, p. 116].

In the process of implementation of the program of risk management services professionals need to analyze the effectiveness of the decisions taken and, where necessary to ensure the adjustment of goals and means to minimize the risks. It is recommended to accumulate all the information about errors and shortcomings of the program of development that emerged in the course of its implementation. This approach will allow for the development of subsequent programs of measures to reduce risks to a level of quality using the new acquired knowledge about the risk [6].

In conclusion, we emphasize that the mechanism of enterprise risk management in the current economic conditions should have a clear hierarchical structure with the need to adjust it according to the results of the program of measures to reduce risks and taking into account the varying impacts.

The analysis of works of domestic and foreign research theory and risk minimization practices, current status and trends of the national economy, the problems and peculiarities of the activity of the real sector enterprises proves the relevance and timeliness of the development of enterprise risk management mechanism in the current economic conditions and leads to the conclusion about the necessity of its implementation in practice the activities of financial and economic departments of economic entities.

Conclusion. The aim of the work was achieved, it was determined the risk is an integral part of business. The risk is estimated as the probability of losses arising from or additional costs, or reduce the amount of output against the expected. Completely eliminate the risk within the market system will never succeed.

Risk management in the evaluation and predictive calculation requires knowledge of the classification of types of risk that vary by time factors, the area of ​​origin, taking into account the nature. In carrying out entrepreneurial activity is important not to avoid risk, and try to reduce it, to relate to each other possible losses and profits. To this end, it is important to be able to calculate the probability of high-risk operations as well as potential losses from risk.

For risk prediction used a variety of methods, combined in the following groups: statistical methods; feasibility study costs; analytical; analogy method; method of expert evaluations and expert systems. What unites these methods is that they operate on the specific risk of deterministic values ​​and calculations do not take into account the random component of the evolution of the economic situation.

To solve the problem of the formation of the resource base of the bank is necessary to intensify efforts to increase the number of contributors. Therefore, banks need to develop competent deposit policy, which is based on the attraction of financial resources put from other sources and maintaining the balance of liabilities to assets on terms, volumes and interest rates.

Accounting for financial risks to become an integral part of the production process, often affecting the very direction of its development. The use of financial instruments when determining the right risks, avoids possible negative consequences in volatile market conditions.

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