4.3. The use of simulation in the study of economic systems

Economic-mathematical modeling is an integral part of lyubogoissledovaniya in economics. The rapid development of mathematical analysis , issledovaniyaoperatsy , probability theory and mathematical statistics contributed formirovaniyurazlichnogo kind of economic models . Why can we say about the effectiveness of methods of modeling in etoyoblasti ? First, the economic objects of various levels ( starting at level prostogopredpriyatiya macro level and ending the country's economy or even the global economy ) can be viewed from the system approach . Second, such harakteristikipovedeniya economic systems : • variability ( dynamic ) contradictory behavior; • tendency to deteriorate ; • exposure to the environment determine the choice of method ihissledovaniya . Over the past 30-40 years, modeling techniques developed economy ochenintensivno . They were built for theoretical purposes of economic analysis and dlyaprakticheskih purposes of planning, management , and prognosis. Substantially modeliekonomiki combine these basic processes : production, planning, management , finance , etc. However, in the corresponding models always focus on what nibudodin - process (eg , the planning process ), while the rest seem vuproschennom form. In the literature on economic and mathematical modeling , depending of type of account for various factors (age , methods of its representation in models of random factors to etc. ) is isolated , such model classes : static and dynamic , discrete and continuous , deterministic, and stochastic . If we consider the nature of the method , which is constructed on the basis of economic and mathematical model , we can distinguish two main types of models: mathematical and simulation . The development of the first direction in the global and domestic science related to takimiimenami as LN Kantorovich, JF Neiman , VS Nemchinov , NA Novozhylov , L.N.Leontev and more. etc. Of great interest in this regard are modeliagregirovannoy economy, which examines the industry , the national economic level . Dynamic models are used in national economic role verhnihkoordiniruyuschih links systems of mathematical economic models. With increasing time horizon increases the range of choices perspektivnogorazvitiya economy and increases the number of degrees of freedom for the selection of optimal solutions , because it reduces the impact of limited resources , inevitably предопределяемойпредшествующим development. However, with increasing time horizon faktorneopredelennosti also beginning to play an increasing role. According to Yu.N.Cheremnyh , " expanded range of dynamic models is regulated in pervuyuochered quality information support. The transition to such a nomenclature dlyasokrascheniya dimension can not be dictated by a powerful algorithmic engine software. " To find the optimal trajectories динамическихнароднохозяйственных models are used both finite and infinite methods proposed for solving mathematical programming . Bolshoeteoreticheskoe and practical importance of dynamic models spurred many avtorovna Special methods for finding optimal trajectories. The proposed metodyuchityvayut explicitly or implicitly block structure limitations of dynamic models istroiya usually without the specific characteristics of the optimal trajectories . Elephants on a prominent scientist in the field of R. Shannon , "the idea of ​​them - tatsionnogomodelirovaniya simple and intuitively appealing , allows you to experiment ssistemami when the real object of this can not be done ." The basis of this method - teoriyavychislitelnyh systems , statistics , probability theory , mathematics . All simulation models are built according to the " black box " that is, the system itself ( eeelementy , structure) are presented in the form of a "black box" , there is some input into it, which is described by exogenous variables ( there is a system under vozdeystviemvneshnih reasons ) and output ( output variables described ), which harakterizuetrezultat the system. In a simulation study is very important stage of the evaluation model , kotoryyvklyuchaet the following steps : - Verification of the model ( the model behaves the way it was meant to researcher ) ; - Assessment of the adequacy of (check the model fit the actual system theme) ; - Analysis of the problem ( the formation of statistically significant findings in osnovedannyh derived from experiments with model ) . Great interest in the concept of a simulation - metodsistemnoy dynamics - developed by a leading expert in the field of teoriiupravleniya , a professor in the School of Management at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Массачусетскомтехнологическом Institute , James Forrester . His first book in this area, " Cybernetics enterprise " has aroused great interest in the world of science to the method sistemnoydinamiki in the simulations . Start global modeling put another work by J. Forrester , " Mirovayadinamika ." Here he sees the world as a whole, as a single system различныхвзаимодействующих processes of demographic, industrial processes ischerpaniyaprirodnyh resources and environmental pollution, the manufacturing process produktovpitaniya . The calculations showed that if the development of the society , rather segodnyashnihtendentsy its development, a major crisis is inevitable in human interaction and the surrounding environment. This crisis is due to the contradiction between ogranichennostyuzemnyh would of course suitable for agriculture ploschadeyi ever-increasing rate of consumption of the growing population . Population growth, industrial and agricultural production leads to a crisis : bystromuzagryazneniyu environment, depletion of natural resources, the production decline mortgage - elevated mortality. Based on the analysis of these results it is concluded oneobhodimosti stabilization of industrial growth and material consumption . J. Forrester Research , R. Shannon , J. Schreiber , and many other scientists voblasti simulation suggests перспективностииспользования this method in the field of economics.