II. Reading

1. Read the article through and try to grasp the main idea without using a dictionary. Kyoto's last stand

The Economist, July 2lst, 2001, p.67-68

The future of the global climate-change treaty looks bleak. The negotiations in Bonn are unlikely to change that.

What is at stake in Bonn? That is the question hanging over the current gathering in Germany's former capital of the world's environment ministers. The answer ranges from everything to nothing, depending on whom you ask.

Officially, ministers are meeting in Bonn to work out the final details of the Kyoto Protocol. That UN treaty, if ratified, would bind industrialised countries to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases significantly over the next decade. Such gases, most notably carbon dioxide, keep the earth warm by slowing the radiation of heat into space. A recent increase in their quantity is, however, causing the planet's surface temperature to rise, which may have adverse climatic consequences.

Ask many environmentalists, and they will say that the planet's very future is at stake at Bonn. They will point to mounting evidence that climate change is real, and insist there is not a moment to lose. The publication earlier this month of the final report of the UN's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change lends weight to their position. The report's most dramatic conclusion, heavily trailed beforehand, is that the range of warming over the next century is likely to be between 1.4C and 5.8C. This doubles the upper bound of the IPCC's previous estimate.

Ask the Americans, and you will get the opposite response: nothing much is at stake in Bonn. The American administration considers the pact "fatally flawed", and will not change its mind in any circumstances, according to Paula Dobriansky, the head of that delegation. She will turn up in Bonn merely to ensure that “American interests" are no trampled on by overzealous Europeans.

Those Europeans have pitched their tents in the same camp as the greens. They recon that the Kyoto Protocol, though imperfect, is the only game in town. On July 17th, the EU issued a declaration proclaiming that "climate change is taking place now. Its consequences will be felt globally. Time is pressing and the international community cannot afford to postpone action. "Jurgen Trittin, Germany's environment minister, goes further. Referring to America, he said that "we cannot allow the country with the biggest emissions of greenhouse gases to escape responsibility for protecting the global climate."

Even before the inauguration of George Bush in January, Europe and America did not exactly see eye to eye over what should happen. Last November, negotiators met in the Hague to try to iron out their differences. The Americans, then represented by the Clinton administration, insisted on reinterpretation of the Kyoto treaty. They wanted to allow the liberal use of "carbon sinks", such as new forests, to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by converting it into plants. They also wanted unfettered emissions trading (buying the right to emit greenhouse gases from places that would find applying controls cheaper that did

the purchaser).

That was hardly an outrageous request, for it would have made tackling climate changes as flexible and inexpensive as possible. It would also have made the treaty more palatable to a hostile American Senate. EU ministers nevertheless rejected it, striking a moralistic note by insisting on sharp limits to such flexibility.

The meeting broke up in disarray.

The parties agreed to continue their negotiations at this week's Bonn jamboree. But now Europe has to deal with an even more sceptical American administration. In March, Mr. Bush reaffirmed his campaign pledge to reject the Kyoto treaty outright. When they realised they could not persuade him to change his mind, the Europeans vowed to forge ahead anyway. Unfortunately for them, the treaty cannot come into force unless it is ratified by 55 countries making up the source of at least 55% of the greenhouse gas emissions of the rich world. Europe with all the allies it can muster; cannot quite leap that hurdle. The crucial vote lies with Japan.

While some parts of the Japanese establishment do want to stand by the EU, it new appears that a group of pragmatists, led by Junichiro Koizumi, the new prime minister, is gaining the upper hand. This crowd is wary of alienating America, which is Japan's strongest ally and chief trading partner. What is more, Mr. Bush’s men have been arm-twisting Japan to dismantle itself form the pact.

That has outraged the Europeans still further. They claim that Mr. Bush had explicitly promised them, when they met at a recent summit in Sweden, that he would not pressure other countries to join him. The Europeans have moderated now their hard line on carbon sinks, which the Japanese have indicated are of particular importance to them.

All in all, it is hard to see how the Kyoto treaty can be saved at Bonn. The only way would be if the Japanese suddenly swung to Europe's side. There is a slim chance this might happen.

The likelier outcome is that the Bonn meeting will prove inconclusive, and that Kyoto will limp along until negotiators meet yet again, in Marrakesh in October.