IBm’s latest supercomputer, Watson, recently took on human contestants at game-show Jeopardy.

http://www-943.ibm.com/ innovation/us/watson/

2. S o C I A L I n t e L L I G e n C e

DEFiNiTioN: ability to connect to others in a deep and direct way, to sense and stimulate reactions and desired interactions

While we are seeing early prototypes of “social” and “emotional” robots in various research labs today, the range of social skills and emotions that they can display is very limited. Feeling is just as complicated as sense-making,

if not more so, and just as the machines we are building are not sense-making machines, the emotional and social robots we are building are not feeling machines.

Socially intelligent employees are able to quickly assess the emotions of those around them and adapt their words, tone and gestures accordingly. This has always been a key skill for workers who need to collaborate and build relationships of trust, but it is even more important as we are called on to coll- aborate with larger groups of people in different settings. Our emotionality and social IQ developed over millennia of living

in groups will continue be one of the vital assets that give hu- man workers a comparative advantage over machines.

MiT Media Lab’s Personal Robots Group is developing a robot that can generate some human-like expressions.

http://robotic.media.mit.edu

3. n o v e L & A d A P t I v e t h I n K I n G DEFiNiTioN: proficiency at thinking and coming up with solutions and responses beyond that which is rote

or rule-based

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor David Autor has tracked the polarization of jobs in the United States over the last three decades. He finds that job op- portunities are declining in middle-skill white-collar and

blue-collar jobs, largely due to a combination of the automa- tion of routine work, and global offshoring.² Conversely, job opportunities are increasingly concentrated in both high- skill, high-wage professional, technical and management occupations and in low-skill, low-wage occupations such as food service and personal care. Jobs at the high-skill end in- volve abstract tasks, and at the low-skill end, manual tasks.

What both of these categories of tasks have in common is that they require what Autor terms “situational adapt- ability”—the ability to respond to unique unexpected

circumstances of the moment. Tasks as different as writing a convincing legal argument, or creating a new dish out of set ingredients both require novel thinking and adaptability.

These skills will be at a premium in the next decade, particu- larly as automation and offshoring continue.

Change in employment by occupation, 1979-2009

Percent

60

4. C R o S S - C U Lt U R A L C o M P e t e n C y

DEFiNiTioN: ability to operate in different cultural settings

In a truly globally connected world, a worker’s skill set could see them posted in any number of locations—they need to be able to operate in whatever environment they find them- selves. This demands specific content, such as linguistic skills, but also adaptability to changing circumstances and an ability to sense and respond to new contexts.

Cross-cultural competency will become an important skill

for all workers, not just those who have to operate in diverse geographical environments. Organizations increasingly see diversity as a driver of innovation. Research now tells us

that what makes a group truly intelligent and innovative is the combination of different ages, skills, disciplines, and working and thinking styles that members bring to the table. Scott E. Page, professor and director of the Center of the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan

has demonstrated that groups displaying a range of per- spectives and skill levels outperform like-minded experts. He concludes that “progress depends as much on our col- lective differences as it does on our individual IQ scores.”³

Diversity will therefore become a core competency for organizations over the next decade. Successful employees within these diverse teams need to be able to identify and communicate points of connection (shared goals, priorities, values) that transcend their differences and enable them to build relationships and to work together effectively.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

1979–1989

1989–1999

1999–2007

2007–2009

Professor Scott E. Page has shown how diverse groups yield superior outcomes when compared to homogeneous groups.

http://press.princeton.edu

Managers Professionals Technicians Sales Office and

admin

Production, Operators, craft, and and laborers

repair

Protective services

Food prep, cleaning

Personal care and services

Employment growth in the United States is polarizing into high- skill and low-skill jobs, both of which require capacity for novel thinking.

David Autor, The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the US Labor Market. Center for American Progress and The Hamilton Project, April 2010

5. C o M P U tAt I o n A L t h I n K I n G

DEFiNiTioN: ability to translate vast amounts of data into abstract concepts and to understand data-based reasoning

As the amount of data that we have at our disposal increases exponentially, many more roles will require computational thinking skills in order to make sense of this information. Nov- ice-friendly programming languages and technologies that teach the fundamentals of programming virtual and physical worlds will enable us to manipulate our environments and en- hance our interactions. The use of simulations will become a core expertise as they begin to feature regularly in discourse and decision-making. HR departments that currently value applicants who are familiar with basic applications, such as the Microsoft Office suite, will shift their expectations, seeking out resumes that include statistical analysis and quantitative reasoning skills.

In addition to developing computational thinking skills, workers will need to be aware of its limitations. This requires an understanding that models are only as good as the data feeding them—even the best models are approximations

of reality and not reality itself. And second, workers must remain able to act in the absence of data and not become paralyzed when lacking an algorithm for every system to guide decision making.

Scratch is an interactive learning environment developed by Lifelong Kindergarten Group at the MiT Media Lab. it teaches young people the fundamentals of computational method- ology in a fun, low risk environment.

http://scratch.mit.edu

6. n e W - M e d I A L I t e R A C y

DEFiNiTioN: ability to critically assess and develop content that uses new media forms, and to leverage these media for persuasive communication

The explosion in user-generated media including the videos, blogs, and podcasts that now dominate our social lives, will be fully felt in workplaces in the next decade. Communica- tion tools that break away from the static slide approach of programs such as PowerPoint will become commonplace, and with them expectations of worker ability to produce content using these new forms will rise dramatically.

The next generation of workers will need to become fluent in forms such as video, able to critically “read” and assess them in the same way that they currently assess a paper or

presentation. They will also need to be comfortable creating and presenting their own visual information. Knowledge of fonts and layouts was once restricted to a small set of print designers and typesetters, until word processing programs brought this within the reach of everyday office workers.

Similarly, user-friendly production editing tools will make video language—concepts such as frame, depth of field etc—part of the common vernacular.

As immersive and visually stimulating presentation of information becomes the norm, workers will need more so- phisticated skills to use these tools to engage and persuade their audiences.

Howard Rheingold’s Social Media Class- room teaches view- ers the vernacular of video.

http://socialmediaclassroom. com

7. t R A n S d I S C I P L I n A R I t y

DEFiNiTioN: literacy in and ability to understand concepts across multiple disciplines

Many of today’s global problems are just too complex to be solved by one specialized discipline (think global warming or overpopulation). These multifaceted problems require trans- disciplinary solutions. While throughout the 20th century, ever-greater specialization was encouraged, the next cen- tury will see transdisciplinary approaches take center stage. We are already seeing this in the emergence of new areas of study, such as nanotechnology, which blends molecular bi- ology, biochemistry, protein chemistry, and other specialties.

This shift has major implications for the skill set that knowledge workers will need to bring to organizations. According to Howard Rheingold, a prominent forecaster and author, “transdisciplinarity goes beyond bringing together researchers from different disciplines to work in multidis- ciplinary teams. It means educating researchers who can speak languages of multiple disciplines—biologists who have understanding of mathematics, mathematicians who under- stand biology.”⁴

The ideal worker of the next decade is “T-shaped”—they bring deep understanding of at least one field, but have the capacity to converse in the language of a broader range of disciplines. This requires a sense of curiosity and a willing- ness to go on learning far beyond the years of formal edu- cation. As extended lifespans promote multiple careers and exposure to more industries and disciplines, it will be particu- larly important for workers to develop this T-shaped quality.

The California institute for Telecommunications and information Technology (Calit2) at the University

of California’s San Diego campus brings together researchers from STEM fields of science and engineering with art, design, and myriad other disciplines to tackle large scale societal problems.

http://socialmovement.org

8. d e S I G n M I n d S e t

DEFiNiTioN: ability to represent and develop tasks and work processes for desired outcomes

The sensors, communication tools and processing power of the computational world will bring with them new opportuni- ties to take a design approach to our work. We will be able to plan our environments so that they are conducive to the outcomes that we are most interested in. Discoveries from neuroscience are highlighting how profoundly our physical environments shape cognition. As Fred Gage, a neurobio- logist who studies and designs environments for neuro- genesis (the creation of new neurons), argues, “change the environment, change the brain, change the behavior.”⁵

One recent study found that ceiling height has a consistent impact on the nature of participants’ thinking.⁶ Participants in the study were asked to rate their current body state or feeling. Those who were in the room with higher ceilings re- sponded more favorably to words associated with freedom, such as “unrestricted” or “open”. Those in the lower-ceiling room tended to describe themselves with words associated with confinement. This impact on mood was directly trans- ferred to mental processes; those in the high-ceiling group were more effective at relational thinking, creating connec- tions and the free recall of facts.

Workers of the future will need to become adept at rec- ognizing the kind of thinking that different tasks require, and making adjustments to their work environments that enhance their ability to accomplish these tasks.

Ceiling height can encourage open, expansive thinking.

http://scienceblogs.com/mixingmemo- ry/2007/05/does_ceiling_height_affect_the.php

t e n S K I L L S

F o R t h e F U t U R e W o R K F o R C e

9. C o G n I t I v e Lo A d M A n A G e M e n t DEFiNiTioN: ability to discriminate and filter information for importance, and to understand how to maximize cognitive

functioning using a variety of tools and techniques

A world rich in information streams in multiple formats and from multiple devices brings the issue of cognitive overload to the fore. Organizations and workers will only be able to turn the massive influx of data into an advantage if they can learn to effectively filter and focus on what is important.

The next generation of workers will have to develop their own techniques for tackling the problem of cognitive overload. For example, the practice of social filtering—ranking, tagging,

or adding other metadata to content helps higher-quality or more relevant information to rise above the “noise.”

Workers will also need to become adept at utilizing new tools to help them deal with the information onslaught. Researchers at Tufts University have wired stockbro- kers—who are constantly monitoring streams of financial data, and need to recognize major changes without be- ing overwhelmed by detail. The stockbrokers were asked to watch a stream of financial data and write an involved email message to a coll-eague. As they got more involved

in composing the email, the fNIRS (functional near-infrared spectroscopy, which measures blood oxygen levels in the brain) system detected this, and simplified the presentation of data accordingly.⁷

Adaptive interfaces, developed by researchers at Tufts, can reduce the level of detail in the market information stockbrokers see when sensors detect that they are experiencing high mental workload.

http://www.cs.tufts.edu

10. 0 v I R t U A L C o L L A b o R At I o n DEFiNiTioN: ability to work productively, drive engagement, and demonstrate presence as a member

of a virtual team.

Connective technologies make it easier than ever to work, share ideas and be productive despite physical separation. But the vir- tual work environment also demands a new set of competencies.

As a leader of a virtual team, individuals need to develop strategies for engaging and motivating a dispersed group. We are learning that techniques borrowed from gaming are extremely effective in engaging large virtual communities. Ensuring that collaborative platforms include typical gaming features such as immediate feedback, clear objectives and a staged series of challenges can significantly drive participa- tion and motivation.

Members of virtual teams also need to become adept at finding environments that promote productivity and well- being. A community that offers “ambient sociability” can help overcome isolation that comes from lack of access to a central, social workplace. This could be a physical cowork- ing space, but it could also be virtual. Researchers at Stanford’s Virtual Human Interaction Lab exploring the

real-world social benefits of inhabiting virtual worlds such as Second Life report that the collective experience of a

virtual environment, especially one with 3D avatars, provides significant social-emotional benefits. Players experience

the others as co-present and available, but they are able to concentrate on their own in-world work.

Online streams created by micro blogging and social networking sites can serve as virtual water coolers, providing a sense of camaraderie and enabling employees to demon- strate presence. For example, Yammer is a Twitter-like micro blogging service, focused on business—only individuals with the same corporate domain in their email address can access the company network.

Yammer asks employ- ees to provide updates on the question, “What are you working on?”

www.yammer.com

I M P L I C At I o n S

The results of this research have implications for individuals, educational institutions, business, and government.

To be successful in the next decade, individuals will need to demonstrate foresight in navigating a rapidly shifting landscape

of organizational forms and skill requirements. They will increasingly be called upon to continually reassess the skills they need, and quickly put together the right resources to develop and update these. Workers in the future will need to be adaptable lifelong learners.

Educational institutions at the primary, secondary, and

post-secondary levels, are largely the products of technology infrastructure and social circumstances of the past. The landscape has changed and educational institutions should consider how to adapt quickly in response. Some directions of change might include:

» Placing additional emphasis on developing skills such as critical thinking, insight, and analysis capabilities

» Integrating new-media literacy into education programs

» Including experiential learning that gives prominence

to soft skills—such as the ability to collaborate, work in groups, read social cues, and respond adaptively

» Broadening the learning constituency beyond teens and young adults through to adulthood

» Integrating interdisciplinary training that allows students to develop skills and knowledge in a range of subjects

Businesses must also be alert to the changing environment and adapt their workforce planning and development strategies to ensure alignment with future skill requirements. Strategic human resource professionals might reconsider traditional methods for identifying critical skills, as well as selecting and developing talent. Considering the disruptions likely to reshape the future will enhance businesses’ ability to ensure organiza- tional talent has and continuously renews the skills necessary for the sustainability of business goals. A workforce strategy

for sustaining business goals should be one of the most critical outcomes of human resource professionals and should involve collaborating with universities to address lifelong learning and skill requirements.

Governmental policymakers will need to respond to the changing landscape by taking a leadership role and making education a national priority. If education is not prioritized, we risk compromising our ability to prepare our people for a

healthy and sustainable future. For Americans to be prepared and for our businesses to be competitive, policy makers should consider the full range of skills citizens will require, as well as the importance of lifelong learning and constant skill renewal.

Trans- disciplinarity

Design Mindset

Sense- Making

Novel and Adaptive

Thinking

Social Intelligence

New Media Literacy

Computational Thinking

Cognitive Load Management

Cross Cultural Competency

Virtual Collaboration

13

e n d n o t e S

¹ Jaron Lernier, Does the Digital Classroom Enfeeble the Mind? New York Times. September 16, 2010. Available at: http://www. nytimes.com/2010/09/19/magazine/19fob-essay-t.html?pagewanted=2.

² David Autor, The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the US Labor Market. Center for American Progress and The Hamilton Proj- ect, April 2010.

³ Scott E. Page, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies. Princeton: Princ- eton University Press, 2008.

⁴ Quoted in Science & Technology Perspectives, Institute for the Future, SR 967.

⁵ Quoted in John P. Eberhard, and Brenda Patoine, Architecture With the Brain in Mind. The Dana Foundation weblog, 2004. Avail- able at: http://www.dana.org/news/cerebrum/detail.aspx?id=1254.

⁶ Joan Meyers-Levy, Rui Zhu, The influence of ceiling height: The effect of priming on the type of processing people use. Journal of Consumer Research 2007: 34.

⁷ Audrey Girouard, Erin Treacy Solovey et al., From Brain Signals to Adaptive Interfaces: using fNIRS in HCI. Brain Computer Inter- facts: Human-Computer Interaction Series, 2010, 3: 221-237.