3.2. Drilling schedule
The drilling department of the company offers the certain schedule of well drilling during 2005 - 2009 г.г. (see table 3.4).
The company plans drilling of wells proceeding from presence of 2 well rigs. This schedule shows settlement forecast costs on each well. Besides, the schedule contains other planned capital investment related to the seismic investigation, water disposal, CPF maintenance ant etc. It is predicted, that capital investment will be about $166MM.
Table 3.4 Capital expenditures plan through 2009
Capital expenditures plan (well drilling) |
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Capital expenditures ($ MM) |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
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Current projects |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
# 2 |
4.6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
# 41 |
6.4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
# 7 |
5.7 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
# 6 |
0.7 |
5.1 |
- |
- |
- |
Future projects |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
# 13 |
- |
6.3 |
- |
- |
- |
# 3 |
- |
4.1 |
3.3 |
- |
- |
# 8 |
- |
5.5 |
3.2 |
- |
- |
# 10 |
- |
5.1 |
3.2 |
- |
- |
# 25 |
- |
5.8 |
- |
3.4 |
- |
# 31 |
- |
- |
4.9 |
3.4 |
- |
# 36 |
- |
- |
4.9 |
3.4 |
- |
# 72 |
- |
- |
- |
6.0 |
4.0 |
# 78 |
- |
- |
- |
6.5 |
4.2 |
# 4 |
- |
- |
6.4 |
- |
- |
# 95 |
- |
- |
4.6 |
- |
- |
# 96 |
- |
- |
- |
5.1 |
- |
# 11 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
6.7 |
# 29 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
8.2 |
Other projects |
8.4 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Central production facilities capex |
1.0 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Exploration |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
- |
Major projects |
- |
5.5 |
4.4 |
2.7 |
- |
Total |
29.9 |
40.7 |
38.5 |
34.0 |
23.1 |
Cumulative capex |
29.9 |
70.52 |
109.01 |
142.98 |
166.05 |
It is expected, that the well will produce certain volume of oil after procedure on well completion, wellhead equipment installing and connecting. The company uses stochastic method for determination of oil volume in wells. This method provides of 3 possible variants of succession for the analysis, namely:
with probability of 10 %: it shows best variant of oil recovery, but with success probability only 10 %;
with probability of 90 %: it shows worst variant of oil recovery, but with success probability of 90 %;
with probability of 50 %: shows average value.
The geological department has made an estimation of oil reserves in these wells and has presented following forecast data on oil recovery. According to these data it is possible to make the schedule of expected oil recovery taking into account satellite wells with breakdown on probability of 10 %, 50 % and 90 %.
The table 3.5 and figure 3.3 show planning oil production with program of well drilling and demonstrates that the oil production of satellite reserves would allow supporting a level of oil recovery at a stable level till 2010.
Table 3.5 Production capacity plan
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Production capacity plan (thousand tons) |
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Probability |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
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Current oil production |
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Р10 |
1201 |
996 |
716 |
645 |
538 |
465 |
399 |
352 |
309 |
277 |
251 |
235 |
218 |
Р50 |
1193 |
983 |
707 |
589 |
497 |
430 |
369 |
326 |
286 |
257 |
234 |
219 |
203 |
Р90 |
1187 |
968 |
697 |
533 |
452 |
391 |
337 |
298 |
262 |
235 |
214 |
201 |
188 |
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Oil production of new wells |
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Р10 |
133 |
475 |
619 |
969 |
1151 |
1225 |
1111 |
880 |
684 |
518 |
410 |
333 |
284 |
Р50 |
132 |
386 |
495 |
748 |
863 |
817 |
573 |
413 |
306 |
239 |
189 |
150 |
119 |
Р90 |
118 |
333 |
411 |
475 |
497 |
439 |
302 |
209 |
150 |
114 |
92 |
73 |
60 |
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Total oil production |
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Р10 |
1334 |
1470 |
1335 |
1614 |
1689 |
1690 |
1510 |
1232 |
993 |
795 |
661 |
568 |
502 |
Р50 |
1325 |
1369 |
1201 |
1337 |
1360 |
1247 |
942 |
739 |
593 |
496 |
422 |
369 |
322 |
Р90 |
1304 |
1301 |
1108 |
1008 |
949 |
830 |
638 |
507 |
412 |
349 |
306 |
274 |
248 |
Figure 3.3 Production profiles
