- •List of table
- •List of figures
- •Introduction
- •Chapter 1
- •Intellectual and historical background of establishing the customs union
- •1.1 The Regionalism
- •1.1.1 Defining Regionalism: What is Regionalism?
- •1.1.2 Old and New Regionalism
- •1.1.3 Trends in “New Regionalism”
- •1.1.4 New Trade Theory and New Regionalism
- •1.2 Regionalism models in Post-Soviet Area
- •1.2.1 Formation of Post-Soviet sovereign state institutions
- •1.2.2 Integration processes in Central Asia.
- •1.3. Customs Union as a type of Regionalism
- •1.3.1 Major Steps in the process of the formation of Customs Union
- •1.3.2 The logic behind the formation of Customs Union
- •Chapter 2 the analysis of the possible effects of the kazakhstan’s accession to the customs union on the country’s agricultural sector
- •2.1. Specifics of the economic structure for the Kazakhstan
- •2.1.1 The General Features of Kazakhstan’s Economy
- •2.1.2 Kazakhstan Agricultural Overview
- •Idle Land
- •2.1.3 Overview of Agricultural sector since 1990
- •2.2. The declining of agriculture/production after 1990 till early 2000
- •2.2.1 The Evolution of Polices since 1991
- •2.2.2 Prices and Subsidies
- •Chapter 3 findings and recommendations
- •3.1 The Neoliberalims: The severance of Agricultural Sector
- •3.2 The Positive Effects of the Customs Union Agricultural Sector of Kazakhstan
- •3.3 Economic Consequences
- •Recommendations
- •Conclusion
- •References Book and Article References
- •Internet References
- •Appendix
2.2. The declining of agriculture/production after 1990 till early 2000
During the 1990s, output of all major agricultural products declined substantially (table 1). Recovery started around 1999, although the pattern is complicated by huge annual variations in the wheat harvest. In southern Kazakhstan, the turnaround started slightly earlier. Cotton output almost tripled between 1998 and 2003, as the area sown with cotton, which was more or less constant in the first half of the 1990s at 107,000-111,000 hectares, increased from 115,000 hectares in 1998 to 182,000 hectares in 2003.
The level of agricultural trade, as well as the relative importance of food exports, has declined substantially since independence. In 1988, agriculture accounted for 17 percent of exports, and the food industry for 7 percent, but, by 2000 these shares had fallen to 6 percent and 1 percent, respectively (Freinkman, Polyakov, and Revenco 2004). In this period, the share of oil and gas rose from 10 percent of exports to 50 percent and that of metals from 19 percent to 32 percent. Oil accounted for an ever-increasing share after 2000 as both output and the world price increased.
Tables show Production of Key Agricultural Products Kz, 1980 to 2005
Table 1. from 1980 to 1993
(crops, metric tons, 1,000s; eggs, millions; animals, 1,000s at end of year)
Product |
1980 |
1985 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
Wheat |
17,548 |
14,191 |
10,784 |
16,197 |
6,889 |
18,285 |
11,585 |
Barley |
6,405 |
6,357 |
5,727 |
9,303 |
3,412 |
9,482 |
7,909 |
Rye |
129 |
144 |
784 |
889 |
506 |
568 |
889 |
Oats |
691 |
570 |
283 |
681 |
265 |
831 |
906 |
Maize |
414 |
598 |
479 |
442 |
330 |
368 |
355 |
Potatoes |
2,238 |
2,197 |
1,783 |
2,324 |
2,143 |
2,570 |
2,296| |
Seed cotton |
358 |
305 |
315 |
324 |
291 |
252 |
200 |
Sugar beets |
2,223 |
1,901 |
1,188 |
1,134 |
726 |
1,276 |
925 |
Vegetables |
1,134 |
1,085 |
1,254 |
1,136 |
955 |
985 |
808 |
Meat |
1,069 |
1,133 |
1,573 |
1,560 |
1,524 |
1,258 |
1,312 |
Milk |
4,597 |
4,763 |
5,563 |
5,642 |
5,555 |
5,265 |
5,577 |
Wool |
103 |
97 |
110 |
108 |
104 |
97 |
95 |
Eggs |
3,369 |
3,803 |
4,253 |
4,185 |
4,075 |
3,565 |
3,288 |
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz
(Retrieved on 29th of April, 2011)
Table 2. from 1993 to 1999
(crops,metric tons, 1,000$; eggs, millions; animals, 1,000s at end of year)
Product |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
Wheat |
11,586 |
9,052 |
6,490 |
7,678 |
8,955 |
4,746 |
11,242 |
Rye |
403 |
283 |
184 |
226 |
255 |
236 |
199 |
Barley |
7,149 |
5,497 |
2,208 |
2,696 |
2,583 |
1,093 |
2,265 |
Oats |
802 |
822 |
250 |
359 |
286 |
73 |
194 |
Rice |
403 |
283 |
184 |
226 |
255 |
236 |
199 |
Soybeans |
6 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
Potatoes |
2,296 |
2,040 |
1,720 |
1,657 |
1,472 |
1,263 |
1,695 |
Sunflower seeds |
86 |
97 |
99 |
64 |
54 |
83 |
104 |
Tobacco |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
9 |
8 |
Seed cotton |
198 |
208 |
223 |
183 |
198 |
162 |
249 |
Vegetables |
808 |
781 |
780 |
778 |
880 |
1,079 |
1,287 |
Meat |
2,231 |
2,102 |
1,774 |
1,541 |
1,346 |
1,213 |
1,182 |
Milk |
5,577 |
5,296 |
4,619 |
3,627 |
3,220 |
3,394 |
3,535 |
Wool |
96 |
75 |
58 |
42 |
32 |
25 |
22 |
Eggs |
3,288 |
2,629 |
1,841 |
1,263 |
1,242 |
1,388 |
1,512 |
Cattle |
9,576 |
9,347 |
8,073 |
6,860 |
5,425 |
4,307 |
3,958 |
Sheep and goats |
37,660 |
29,759 |
23,062 |
13,679 |
10,384 |
9,527 |
9,657 |
Pigs |
2,591 |
2,445 |
1,983 |
1,623 |
1,036 |
879 |
892 |
Horses |
1,742 |
1,649 |
1,521 |
1,310 |
1,083 |
986 |
970 |
Poultry |
52,308 |
45,121 |
26,481 |
15,378 |
15,982 |
16,985 |
18,022 |
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz
Retrieved on 29th of April, 2011
Table 3. from 2000 to 2005
(crops, metric tons, 1,000s; eggs, millions; animals, 1,000s at end of year)
Product |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
Wheat |
9,073 |
12,707 |
12,700 |
11,537 |
9,937 |
11,300 |
Rye |
48 |
43 |
106 |
42 |
20 |
23 |
Barley |
1,664 |
2,244 |
2,209 |
2,154 |
1,388 |
1,600 |
Oats |
182 |
220 |
183 |
171 |
130 |
150 |
Rice |
214 |
199 |
199 |
273 |
276 |
310 |
Soybeans |
4 |
7 |
25 |
38 |
47 |
45 |
Potatoes |
1,692 |
2,185 |
2,269 |
2,308 |
2,261 |
2,300 |
Sunflower seeds |
105 |
149 |
190 |
293 |
266 |
240 |
Tobacco |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
Seed cotton |
287 |
418 |
361 |
480 |
467 |
350 |
Vegetables |
1,544 |
1,782 |
1,867 |
1,938 |
2,058 |
1,939 |
|Meat |
1,140 |
1,155 |
1,191 |
1,243 |
Inc |
Inc |
Milk |
3,730 |
3,923 |
4,110 |
4,317 |
4,557 |
4,713 |
(Wool |
23 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
Eggs |
1,692 |
inc |
inc |
inc |
Inc |
Inc |
Cattle |
3,998 |
4,107 |
4,294 |
4,560 |
4,871 |
5.204| |
Sheep and goats |
9,981 |
10,400 |
1 1,171 |
inc |
Inc |
Inc |
Pigs |
984 |
1,076 |
1,124 |
1,230 |
1,369 |
1,292 |
Horses |
976 |
986 |
990 |
1,019 |
1,064 |
1,120 |
Poultry |
19,700 |
21,300 |
23,800 |
inc |
Inc |
inc |
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz
Retrieved on 29th of April, 2011
The post-transition pattern of agricultural trade has been characterized by the exportation of primary products and the importation of processed food products of higher perceived quality/' Kazakhstan continued to be a substantial food exporter, selling grains, fruits, and vegetables primarily to Russia and other markets in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), but a minor cotton exporter (table 4). Exports of livestock products declined substantially; dairy exports were negligible by the late 1990s, and meat exports continued to fall in value, from US$16 million in 1998 to USS5 million in 2001. In the early 2000s, meat, milk, and eggs—all important exports during the Soviet era—had almost become nontraded items. Kazakhstan was a net importer of sugar (from outside the CIS) and of chicken and dairy products (from Russia). Between 1998 and 2001 imports of dairy products rose substantially (from US$12.3 million to USS27.0 million for milk and cream and from US$6.6 million to US$8.4 million for butter), while meat imports fell (from US$32.1 million to US$18.2 million), suggesting that there was some import substitution in the latter, but not the former case.
Exports of Key Agricultural Products, Kz, 1995 to 2004
Table 4. from 1995 to 2000
PRODUCT |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
Grains |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Volume (tons 1,000s) |
3,484.1 |
2,808.9 |
3,577.5 |
2,905.2 |
3,816.2 |
5,612.4 |
Price (USS per ton) |
88.5 |
152.6 |
143.1 |
101.7 |
82.2 |
88.4 |
Value (USS millions) |
308.3 |
428.6 |
511.6 |
295.4 |
313.6 |
496.2 |
Cotton fiber |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Volume (tons 1,000s) |
25.7 |
69.7 |
63.9 |
48.2 |
62.1 |
90.2 |
Price (USS per ton) |
1,425.3 |
1,388.1 |
1,213.6 |
1,077.3 |
796.8 |
945.7 |
Value (USÎ millions) |
36.4 |
96.7 |
77.5 |
51.9 |
49.5 |
85.3 |
Wool |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Volume (tons 1,000s) |
51.7 |
31.2 |
41.7 |
12.0 |
15.7 |
10.6 |
Price (USS per ton) |
999.1 |
1,372.4 |
1,367.9 |
1,440.0 |
426.2 |
450.3 |
Value (USS millions) |
51.7 |
42.8 |
57.1 |
17.3 |
6.7 |
4.6 |
Total exports (USS millions) |
5,440.0 |
6,291.7 |
6,899.2 |
5,870.6 |
5,988.5 |
9,468.1 |
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz
Retrieved on 30th of April, 2011
Table 5. from 2000 to 2004
PRODUCT |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
Grains |
|
|
|
|
|
Volume (tons 1,000s) |
5,612 |
3,336 |
4,311 |
5,835 |
2,929 |
Price (USS per ton) |
88 |
103 |
80 |
97 |
150 |
Value (USS millions) |
496 |
344 |
346 |
565 |
440 |
Cotton fiber |
|
|
|
|
|
Volume (tons 1,000s) |
90 |
96 |
138 |
126 |
143 |
Price (USS per ton) |
946 |
864 |
763 |
1,11 |
1,19 |
Value (USÎ millions) |
85 |
83 |
105 |
139 |
170 |
Wool |
|
|
|
|
|
Volume (tons 1,000s) |
11 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
7 |
Price (USS per ton) |
450 |
618 |
618 |
465 |
737 |
Value (USS millions) |
5 |
5 |
S |
5 |
5 |
Total exports (US$ mill) |
9,288 |
8,928 |
10,027 |
13,233 |
20,603 |
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz
Retrieved on 30th of April, 2011
Table 6 presents data on the value of Kazakhstan’s agricultural trade in 2003, the latest year available from the UN Comtrade Data-base. The 27 two-digit agricutural and agroprocessing sectors sold USS998 million worth of exports (7.7 percent of total exports), while the imports of these goods were valued at USS694 million. This was a record year for wheat exports and a good year for cotton exports (table 2); so, the total may be unrepresentative, but the first panel indicates the high level of concentration of farm exports. Wheat and wheat flour (58 percent), cotton (14 percent),and hides and leather (5 percent) accounted for over three-quarters of agricultural exports. Imports were more diverse, with only raw sugar accounting for over 10 percent of agricultural imports. Other substantial import categories tended to he serniprocesved items, such as tea and coffee, alcoholic beset ages, dairy products and ice cream, edible oils tobacco products, and chocolate and confectionary and bakery products.
Table 6. The Value of Agricultural Exports and Imports,
by Subsector,2003
Exports and imports
Code |
Harmonized commodity description |
Exports |
Imports |
01 |
Live animals |
274 |
2,608 |
02 |
Moat k ecfcbto meat offal |
668 |
28,321 |
03 |
Fish & crustacean mollusk & other |
18,292 |
10,304 |
04 |
Dairy products; birds' eggs; natural honey |
8,817 |
61,957 |
05 |
Products of animal origin |
2,774 |
191 |
06 |
Live tree & other plant; bulb, roots |
9 |
2,045 |
07 |
Edible vegetables and certain roots |
15,927 |
2,767 |
08 |
Edible fruit and nuts |
11,58 |
15,351 |
09 |
Coffee, lea, and spices |
316 |
34,073 |
10 |
Cereals |
564,599 |
4,831 |
11 |
Flour, meal malt & starches |
59,750 |
11,026 |
12 |
Oileeds, roots and other vegetable matter |
3,537 |
25,200 |
13 |
Gums, resins & other vegetable products |
30 |
9,293 |
14 |
Vegetable plaiting materials, & vegetable matter nes |
3,739 |
167 |
15 |
Animal/vegctable fats and oils and clarifying agents |
8,451 |
51,392 |
16 |
Preparations of meat, fish or crustaceans |
3,252 |
15,230 |
17 |
Sugars and sugar confectionery |
38,670 |
156,496 |
18 |
Cocoa and cocoa preparations |
825 |
49,335 |
19 |
Preparations of cereal, flour, starch/milk |
6,248 |
45,028 |
20 |
Preparations of vegetable, fruit, nuts or olives |
1,600 |
27,239 |
23 |
Residues and waste from the food industry |
3,206 |
7,873 |
52 |
Cotton |
145,516 |
5,165 |
53 |
Other vegetable textile fibers |
0 |
1,313 |
Total of above categories Total trade |
997,947 12,926,687 |
693,541 8,408,685 |
|
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz, (Retrieved on 30th of April, 2011)
Table 7. Exports valued at over US$ 10 millions,(US$1,000s and percent)
Code |
Harmonized commodity description |
Exports |
Share (%) |
100100 |
Wheat and meslin |
522,568 |
52.36 |
100300 |
Barley |
37,107 |
3.72 |
110100 |
Wheat or meslin flour |
57,678 |
5.78 | |
170199 |
Cane or beet sugar, in solid form |
37,540 |
3.76 |
410121 |
Whole hides and skins of bovine animals |
11,423 |
1.15 |
410422 |
Bovine leather |
47,327 |
4.34 |
520100 |
Cotton, not carded or combed |
140,298 |
14.06 |
Total |
|
889,861 |
88.8 |
Source: The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan www.stat.kz (Retrieved on 30th of April, 2011)
Table 8. Imports valued at over US$ 10 million
(US$1,000s and percent)
Code |
Harmonized commodity description |
Imports |
Share (%) |
Tariff (%) |
0402 |
Milk and cream |
34,764 |
5.01 |
12 |
040500 |
Butter and other fats and oils derived from animals |
8,813 |
1.28 |
20 |
0902 |
Tea |
31,228 |
4.50 |
5 |
110710 |
Malt not roasted |
7,974 |
I 15 |
10 |
120600 |
Sunflower seeds |
18,375 |
2 65 |
0 |
130219 |
Other vegetable saps and extracts |
7,639 |
1.10 |
0 |
151219 |
Sunflower-seed and safflower oil |
21,254 |
3.06 |
15 |
151620 |
Vegetable fats and oils |
9,135 |
1.32 |
0 |
160100 |
Sausages and similar products |
9,040 |
1.30 |
20 |
|l 70111 |
Raw cane sugar, in solid form |
120,273 |
17.34 |
0 |
|l 70490 |
Sugar confectionery |
18,81 4 |
2.71 |
19 |
1806 |
Chocolate |
43,336 |
6.25 |
0.6 |
1905 |
Bread, pastry, cakes |
34,477 |
4 97 |
mm |
210500 |
Ice cream and other edible ice |
9,601 |
1.38 |
|
2203-2208 |
Alcoholic beverages |
31,306 |
4.51 |
n.a. |
|
2203 Beer made from malt—15,458 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
0.6 |
|
2204 Wine of fresh grapes—6,605 |
n.a. |
n.a. |
0.5 |
Total |
|
508,077 |
73.23 |
n.a. |
Sources: UN Comtrade Database 2007; UNCTAD Trains Database 2007.
Note: nes = not elsewhere specified. n.a. = not applicable
Export shares in the agriculture total (US$998 million)
Import shares in the agriculture total (US$694 million)
Indicates a residual category with various tariff rates in the UNCTAD Trains Database that could not be matched to the precise import categories.