Effects of risk aversion on successful decisions: a linear regression model
In order to determine the predictor variables, i.e.; the variables that maintain effects on a successful key decision decision, such as the one that has been selected as objective: The directive decisions that have been successful, because the authorities have taken as an example for probing it in other institutions, the regression model obtained has three predictors variables that with an accuracy of 52.2% are determining the presence of a successful decision, as shown in graph number 1.
Graph number 1. Linear regression model to determine effects of risk aversion on a successful target decision
Graph 1, shows that the major effect on the successful decision is to decide autonomously in order to avoiding the standardized application of manuals and procedures, which is the reverse of risk aversion; we can see how the second predictor variable accepts firm and durable solutions even though they have some risk; finally a third predictor variable relates to deciding in a changing and difficult situations context, undertaking and developing different alternatives.
According to the previous model of linear regression analyzed, it is established that the less risk aversion is presented, the more it favors the successful directive decision in question.
4. Conclusions
The following conclusions are derived from the descriptive and inferential analyzes performed with the data and are listed below.
• Evaluations on the directive decision-making process maintains higher scores than when evaluating successful management decisions.
• Successful management decisions associated with conditions of uncertainty maintain low average scores, evaluated by decision´s users.
• The lowest valuations of users of decisions are presented when evaluating decision-making at risk.
• The presence of risk aversion is registered, since of 8 items of this dimension, in five of them by hypothesis test procedure, the existence of risk aversion is demonstrated.
• The strongest correlations were presented when the successful decision describes a directive ability that responds to how to decide in conditions of uncertainty, in this way the number of correlations of the successful decisions increases in the items related to risk aversion.
• The more a successful management decision is associated with risk aversion, the less approval status the successful decision item will have and the more extreme case it will have Ho withholding.
• The significant differences in the assessment of successful directive decisions, in the condition of uncertainty and aversion to risk, belong to the group of women, to teachers of group, to the older age group, to more years in service; they were who assigned the highest scores in the means of perception of the items, while the men, the commissioned and support teachers, the younger age group, the average age group of 6 to 15 years of service and the master's interns; were who assigned the lowest scores on the means of perception of the items.
• The proven effects on the item: Its decisions are taken as an example by the authorities ... were the predictor variables: When deciding in uncertain conditions, the director avoids the standardized application of manuals and procedures, decides more for durable solutions and firm but with a certain risk and in deciding in difficult and changing situations, the director chooses to undertake and to develop different alternatives. These effects are demonstrated with an accuracy of 52.2% in the regression model presented.
From the above and in accordance with the central hypothesis of the present investigation, Ho is not rejected, from which, the principals of basic education of the school zone No. 6, of federalized primary education, in the City of Durango, Dgo. which are assessed with a higher level of risk avoidance in their decision-making process under uncertain conditions, achieve low perception scores on their successful decisions in the school setting.
New research approaches will be needed to more accurately demonstrate a multiple predictive model between successful directive decisions and the level of risk avoidance, which will enrich or challenge the results described here.
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