Theme of the lecture № 9. The foreign trade and geoeconomic policy of Republic of Kazakhstan

1. Foreign trade development of the Republic of Kazakhstan

2. Modern structure of an external economic situation and trading balance of the Republic of Kazakhstan

3. Analysis and forecast of foreign trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan

1. Foreign trade development of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia. It possesses enormous oil reserves as well as minerals and metals. It also has considerable agricultural potential with its vast steppe lands accommodating both livestock and grain production, as well as developed space infrastructure, which took over all launches to the International Space Station from the Space Shuttle. The mountains in the south are important for apples and walnuts; both species grow wild there. Kazakhstan's industrial sector rests on the extraction and processing of these natural resources and also on a relatively large machine building sector specializing in construction equipment, tractors, agricultural machinery, and some military items. The breakup of the USSR and the collapse of demand for Kazakhstan's traditional heavy industry products have resulted in a sharp contraction of the economy since 1991, with the steepest annual decline occurring in 1994. In 1995-97 the pace of the government program of economic reform and privatization quickened, resulting in a substantial shifting of assets into the private sector. The December 1996 signing of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium agreement to build a new pipeline from western Kazakhstan'sTengiz Field to the Black Sea increases prospects for substantially larger oil exports in several years. Kazakhstan's economy turned downward in 1998 with a 2.5% decline in GDP growth due to slumping oil prices and the August financial crisis in Russia. A bright spot in 1999 was the recovery of international petroleum prices, which, combined with a well-timed tenge devaluation and a bumper grain harvest, pulled the economy out of recession.

Current GDP per capita shrank by 26% in the Nineties. However since 2000, Kazakhstan's economy grew sharply, aided by increased prices on world markets for Kazakhstan's leading exports—oil, metals and grain. GDP grew 9.6% in 2000, up from 1.7% in 1999. Since 2001, GDP growth has been among the highest in the world. In 2006, extremely high GDP growth had been sustained, and grew by 10.6%.^[8]Business with booming Russia and China, as well as neighboring Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) nations have helped to propel this amazing growth. The increased economic growth also led to a turn-around in government finances, with the budget moving from a cash deficit of 3.7% of GDP in 1999 to 0.1% surplus in 2000.

Macro-economic trend

This chart shows trends in the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan at market prices estimated by the International Monetary Fund, with figures in millions of Kazakhstani tenges

Year	Gross Domestic Product	US Dollar Exchange	Inflation Index (2000=100)	Per Capita Income (as % of USA)
1995	78,014,200	61.11 Tenges	64	3.81
2000	102,599,902	142.26 Tenges	100	3.53
2005	147,453,000	132.88 Tenges	140	9.01

For purchasing-power parity comparisons, the US Dollar is exchanged at 59.95 Tenges only. Mean wages comprised $6.93 per man-hour in 2009.

Kazakhstan has managed its monetary policy well. Its principal challenge in 2001 was to manage strong foreign-currency inflows without sparking inflation. Inflation had, in fact, stayed under control, registering 9.8% in 2000, and appeared likely to be under 10% in 2001. Because of its strong economic performance and financial health, Kazakhstan became the first former Soviet republic to repay all of its debt to the IMF by paying back $400 million in 2000; 7 years ahead of schedule. Overall foreign debt amounts to about $12.5 billion, $4 billion of it owed by the government. This amounts to 6.9% of GDP, well within manageable levels.

The upturn in economic growth, combined with the results of earlier reforms in taxation and in the financial sector, dramatically improved government finances from the 1998 budget deficit level of 4.2% of GDP to a slight surplus in 2000. Government tax-revenues grew from 16.4% of GDP in 1999 to 20.6% of GDP in 2000. In 2000, Kazakhstan adopted a new tax-code in an effort to consolidate these gains. Its strong financial position also allowed the government to reduce the value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 16% and to reduce social (payroll) taxes as of July 2001. Kazakhstan's stronger budget-position and strong export-earnings earned it credit-rating upgrades from Moody's, S&P, and Fitchduring 2001.

Kazakhstan instituted a pension reform program in 1998 that was partly based on the model of the Chilean pension system but included modifications. By July 2001, Kazakhstanis had contributed more than $1 billion to their own personal pension-accounts, mostly managed by the private sector. The National Bank oversees and regulates the pension funds. The pension funds' growing demand for quality investment outlets triggered rapid development of the debt-securities market. Pension-fund capital is being invested almost exclusively in corporate and government bonds, including Government of Kazakhstan Eurobonds. The Kazakhstani banking system is developing rapidly. Banking systems capitalization now exceeds $1 billion. The National Bank has introduced deposit insurance in its campaign to strengthen the banking sector. Several major foreign banks have branches in Kazakhstan, including ABN AMRO, Citibank, and HSBC. Kazakhstan is also a member of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO).

According to the Republic of Kazakhstan Agency for Statistics, in January–March 2010 production of GDP amounted to 3,881.6 billion tenge and an increase of 7.1%.