- •Introduction
- •Basic concepts of probability theory
- •Classical definition of probability
- •Relative frequency
- •Geometric probabilities
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 1
- •Exercises for Homework 1
- •Basic formulas of combinatorial analysis
- •Operations over events
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 2
- •Exercises for Homework 2
- •Theorem of addition of probabilities of incompatible events
- •Complete group of events
- •Opposite events
- •Conditional probability
- •Theorem of multiplication of probabilities
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 3
- •Exercises for Homework 3
- •Independent events
- •Where a is the appearance of at least one of the events a1, a2, …, An; .
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 4
- •Exercises for Homework 4
- •Theorem of addition of probabilities of compatible events
- •Formula of total probability
- •Probability of hypotheses. Bayes’s formulas.
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 5
- •Exercises for Homework 5
- •Repetition (recurrence) of trials. The Bernoulli formula
- •Local theorem of Laplace
- •Integral theorem of Laplace
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 6
- •Exercises for Homework 6
- •Random variables. The law of distribution of a discrete random variable
- •A random variable is understood as a variable which as result of a trial takes one of the possible set of its values (which namely – it is not beforehand known).
- •Mathematical operations over random variables
- •(Mathematical) expectation of a discrete random variable
- •Dispersion of a discrete random variable
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 7
- •Exercises for Homework 7
- •Distribution function of a random variable
- •Properties of a distribution function
- •Continuous random variables. Probability density
- •Properties of probability density
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 8
- •Exercises for Homework 8
- •Basic laws of distribution of discrete random variables
- •1. Binomial law of distribution
- •2. The law of distribution of Poisson
- •3. Geometric distribution
- •4. Hypergeometric distribution
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 9
- •Exercises for Homework 9
- •Basic laws of distribution of continuous random variables
- •1. The uniform law of distribution
- •2. Exponential law of distribution
- •3. Normal law of distribution
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 10
- •Exercises for Homework 10
- •The law of large numbers and limit theorems
- •The central limit theorem
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 11
- •Exercises for Homework 11
- •Mathematical statistics. Variation series and their characteristics
- •Numerical characteristics of variation series
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 12
- •Exercises for Homework 12
- •Bases of the mathematical theory of sampling
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 13
- •Exercises for Homework 13
- •Methods of finding of estimations
- •Notion of interval estimation
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 14
- •Exercises for Homework 14
- •Testing of statistical hypotheses
- •Glossary
- •Exercises for Seminar 15
- •Exercises for Homework 15
- •Individual homeworks
- •Variant 1
- •Variant 2
- •Variant 3
- •Variant 4
- •Variant 5
- •Variant 6
- •Variant 7
- •Variant 8
- •Variant 9
- •Variant 10
- •Variant 11
- •Variant 12
- •Variant 13
- •Variant 14
- •Variant 15
- •Variant 16
- •Variant 17
- •Variant 18
- •Variant 19
- •Variant 20
- •Variant 21
- •Variant 22
- •Variant 23
- •Variant 24
- •Variant 25
- •Final exam trial tests (for self-checking)
- •Appendix
- •Values the functions and
- •List of the used books
- •Contents
Glossary
probability theory – теория вероятностей
reliable event – достоверное событие
random event – случайное событие
vessel – сосуд; trial (experiment) – испытание (опыт, эксперимент)
urn – урна; heads or tails? – орел или решка?
at random – наудачу; to land a prize – получить приз
complete group of events – полная группа событий
equally possible events – равновозможные события
uniquely possible events – единственно возможные события
ace – очко (при игре в кости); die – кость (игральная)
dice – игра в кости, кости; hit – попадание; miss – промах
to shuffle – перемешивать; relative frequency – относительная частота
favorable case – благоприятствующий (благоприятный) случай
mass homogeneous events – массовые однородные события
Exercises for Seminar 1
1.1. There are 50 identical details (and 5 of them are painted) in a box. Find the probability that the first randomly taken detail will be painted.
1.2. A die is tossed. Find the probability that an even number of aces will appear.
1.3. Participants of a toss-up pull a ticket with numbers from 1 up to 100 from a box. Find the probability that the number of the first randomly taken ticket does not contain the digit 5 (toss-up – жеребьевка; to pull – тянуть; ticket – жетон).
1.4. In a batch of 100 details the quality department has found out 5 non-standard details. What is the relative frequency of appearance of non-standard details equal to? (batch – партия)
1.5. At shooting by a rifle the relative frequency of hit in a target has appeared equal to 0,85. Find the number of hits if 120 shots were made (a rifle – винтовка).
1.6. One die is randomly taken from a carefully hashed full set of 28 dice of domino. Find the probability that the second randomly taken die can be put to the first if the first die:
a) is a double;
b) is not double (to hash – перемешивать; double – дубль).
The answer: a) 2/9; b) 4/9.
1.7. A point B(x) is randomly put in a segment OA of the length L of the numeric axis Ox. Find the probability that the smaller of the segments OB and BA has the length which is less than L/4. It is supposed that the probability of hit of a point in the segment is proportional to its length and does not depend on its location on the numeric axis.
1.8. Two persons have agreed to meet in a certain place between 18 and 19 o'clock and have agreed that a person come the first waits for another person within 15 minutes then leaves. Find the probability of their meeting if arrival of everyone within the specified hour can take place at any time and the moments of arrival are independent.
The answer: 7/16.
1.9. Two dice are tossed. Find the probability that:
a) the same number of aces will appear on both dice;
b) two aces will appear at least on one die;
c) the sum of aces will not exceed 6.
1.10. A point is randomly taken inside a circle of radius 5. Find the probability that the point will be inside a proper (equilateral) triangle entered in the circle (a proper triangle – правильный треугольник; equilateral – равносторонний).
The
answer:
.
