Unit 16. The impact of inflation on business (влияние инфляции на бизнес)

Inflation can adversely affect business in a number of ways:

1. Accounting and financial problems. Трудности бухгалтерского учета и финансирования

Significant rates of inflation can cause accounting and financial problems for businesses. They may experience difficulty in valuing assets and stocks, for example. Such problems can waste valuable management time and make forecasting, comparisons and financial control more onerous.

2. Falling sales. Снижение объема продаж

Many businesses may experience falling sales during inflationary periods for two broad reasons. Firstly, it may be that saving rises in a time of inflation. We would expect people to spend more of their money when prices are rising to avoid holding an asset (cash), which is falling in value. However, during the mid-1970s, when industrialized nations were experiencing high inflation rates, savings as a proportion of income rose! It is not easy to identify the reason for this, but some economists suggest that people like to hold a relatively high proportion of their assets in a form which can be quickly converted into cash when the future is uncertain. Whatever the reason, if people save more they spend less and businesses suffer falling sales. The economic model predicts that if savings rose the level of activity in the economy would fall. Clearly, if this happened we would expect businesses to experience difficulty in nraintaining their levels of sales.

Businesses may be hit by a reduction in sales during a time of inflation for a second reason. As inflation progresses, it is likely that workers' money wages (that is, wages unadjusted for inflation) will be increased broadly in line with inflation. This may well take a worker into a higher tax bracket and result in a higher percentage of his or her wages being taken as tax. This process, known as fiscal drag, will cause workers to have less money available to spend on firms' goods and services. The poverty trap has a similar impact. As money wages rise, the poor may find that they no longer qualify for state benefits to supplement their incomes and at the same time they begin to pay income tax on their earnings. Again, this leaves less disposable income to spend on the output of firms. Finally, it may be that the wages of many groups are not index-linked and so they rise less quickly than the rate of inflation, causing a reduction in spending power and demand for goods and services.

Once again, the economic model can be used to predict that increases in the level of taxation will increase withdrawals, lowering the level of economic activity and depressing firms' sales.

Not all businesses will suffer equally from declining demand in an inflationary period. Those selling essential items, such as food, may be little affected whilst others supplying less essential goods and services, such as foreign holidays, may be hard hit.

3. High interest rates. Высокие процентные ставки

Inflation is often accompanied by high interest rates. High interest rates tend to discourage investment by businesses as they increase the cost of borrowing funds. Thus, investment may fall. Businesses may also be dissuaded from undertaking investment programmes because of a lack of confidence in the future stability and prosperity of the economy. This fall in investment may be worsened by foreign investment being reduced as they also lose some confidence in the economy's future.

Such a decline in the level of investment can lead to businesses having to retain obsolete, inefficient and expensive means of production and cause a loss of international competitiveness. Finally, a fall in investment can lower the level of economic activity, causing lower sales, output and so on. Thus, to some extent, businesses can influence the economic environment in which they operate.