12. Chechnya Stage Set with Kadyrov's Appointment

By Anna Arutunyan The Moscow News

 

President Vladimir Putin appointed Chechen premier Ramzan Kadyrov as acting president of the volatile southern republic, replacing President Alu Alkhanov and ending months of speculations about a power struggle between the two leaders. The move was sudden, but not unexpected, especially considering the Kremlin's long-term policy that stakes the future of Chechnya's stability on the Kadyrov clan.

In a decree signed last Thursday, Putin accepted Alkhanov's resignation and appointed Kadyrov, who has been seen as Chechnya's de-facto ruler since the death of his father Akhmad Kadyrov in 2004, to the post of acting president. The appointment was more of a formality, which fortified Kadyrov's rule and recognized him as a leader who has established Putin's trust. He is a guarantor that Chechnya is finally on its way to order and stability, as the Kremlin itself prepares for a transfer of power in 2008.

Launching the regional presidential campaign, Dmitri Kozak, presidential envoy to the Southern Federal District, of which Chechnya is a part, traveled to Grozny this week to nominate three candidates for presidency. Besides Kadyrov, who's appointment is a virtual certainty, Kozak named Muslim Khuchiyev, the leader of the regional faction of the Spravedlivaya Rossiya (A Just Russia) party, and Grozny administrative head Shaid Dzhamaldayev. Putin now has 14 days to choose his favored candidate, who will be then approved by the Chechen parliament (public elections in the regions were done away with in 2004). By as early as Friday, before the other candidates were announced, United Russia, the pro-Kremlin majority, threw its support behind Kadyrov. State Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov told journalists that his party was prepared to support the de-facto Chechen leader.

Alkhanov had stressed that his resignation was a personal decision. However, the move contrasted starkly with previous stances where he insisted that he had no intention of abandoning his post. Meanwhile, despite his relative autonomy, Russian media viewed the Chechen president as incapable of withstanding any pressure from Kadyrov. Talk of Alkhanov's resignation has persisted throughout Kadyrov's tenure as premier. In May 2006, the two leaders met with President Putin in the Kremlin to mediate an apparent power struggle. The meeting ended with Putin dismissing the idea of Alkhanov's resignation.

Meanwhile, Kadyrov has repeatedly dismissed his own presidential ambitions.

"I have not yet adapted myself to the role of president, and I say again that I am not ready to be president," Kadyrov reportedly said at a Monday press conference in Grozny. He added, however, "Whatever Putin decides is what will be."

Nevertheless, the new leader has pressed ahead with plans for the future.

This week, he launched a round table discussion dedicated to strategies for rebuilding the war-torn province. He also spoke out against an agreement that would delimitate spheres of power between Moscow and Grozny, allotting Grozny more control over its oil. The Vremya Novostei daily speculated that Kadyrov made this statement as a favor to the Kremlin, in return for his appointment as acting president. Still, the new acting president persisted in his attempts to establish more control over the republic's oil. Another statement interpreted as an attempt to placate Putin was Kadyrov's allegation that the exiled business tycoon Boris Berezovsky was behind the murders of crusading journalist Anna Politkovskaya and former intelligence officer Alexander Litvinenko.

Despite being referred to as a "warlord" in the Western press, Kadyrov elicits either respect or indifference from the general population. A poll conducted days before his appointment by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTSIOM) suggests that about 43 percent view Kadyrov positively, while about a third - 34 percent - were indifferent.

Indeed, Sergei Markedonov, a political expert specializing in the Caucasus region at the Moscow-based Institute of Political and Military Analysis, says that Alkhanov's dismissal came at a point when "he lost the information war," despite being elected as president earlier.

But another view was that Moscow's dependence on Kadyrov for stability was dangerous. Mikhail Remizov of the Institute of National Strategies was quoted in the Kommersant daily as saying that Kadyrov's latest programs, as well as his insistence on more leverage from Moscow, point to Russia's "capitulation."

"We don't value loyal people like Alkhanov, who, unlike Kadyrov's clan, was always on Moscow's side." Remizov speculated that Kadyrov could well use the prospect of new military conflicts in the region as a playing card.

Markedonov also had grim views on what Kadyrov's appointment entails for Russia as a whole. "This appointment shows a serious dependence by Russia's government on the situation in Chechnya," he said in an interview. "I don't even see where the tail that wags the dog is."

"The whole point of the deal is that Kadyrov upholds order on his own terms, but demonstrates that he is loyal to Moscow," he says. "This is good for the Kremlin, which can show that there is peace in Chechnya, and it is good for Kadyrov, who gets to privatize power in Chechnya." He called this kind of dangerous balance a "regional apartheid," and went as far as to compare it to Moscow's 18th century deal with the Crimean Tartars, who were paid not to overrun Russia's southern lands.

Echoing other experts, Markedonov believes that Putin's stake on Kadyrov is a crucial factor for the future of Russia itself. "The idea of a third term for Putin rests on the Chechen issue," he said. Before Putin can decide how he transfers power, he must be certain of a dependable strongman in Chechnya. Putin's personal pact with Kadyrov, moreover, could play a role in keeping the president for a third term, despite his insistence that he has no plans to run against the constitution. "In the Kremlin they might think that everything is worked out with Kadyrov, everything is predictable... and insist that Putin stays to protect that status quo".

Generally, however, Markedonov feels that Chechens are weary of war, and that there are other mechanisms of maintaining stability besides Putin's one-on-one "pact" with Kadyrov.