15. A New Bipolar World Order

By Andrei Belikov

 

The great Danish physicist Niels Bohr, founder of quantum theory, loved to repeat a paradox he himself had coined: "The opposite of a profound truth may be another profound truth."

Today's sharp aggravation of relations between the West and the Islamic world is extremely alarming and perilous; yet there could be some positive aspects to this conflict.

First, election results in Iran and Palestine, in addition to the cartoon scandal, should dispel any illusions about the possibility of maintaining peaceful and neighborly relations between the West and the Islamic nations.

There is no sense in putting the blame on anyone for that; we only need to see that relations between those two sides are in deep crisis. Sadly, this crisis will probably worsen. Moreover, the Muslim world's centers of resistance to Western values may happen to be not only Palestine and Iran, for extremist forces could soon come to power in some other countries too.

Apart from that, it has become clear that the majority of Muslims denounce not only the United States (which is understandable in view of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq), but also the European states. Note that it is the vast majority of Muslims - and not individual religious fanatics as it was generally believed - who harbor anti-American and anti-European sentiments.

Therefore, the Western leaders would do well to acknowledge the fact that for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the world has become bipolar once again. What is more, this transformation has positive as well as negative aspects. But whatever our view on the issue, we must realize that the Muslim leaders represent a real force, and that we must establish diplomatic relations with them, even if we take a tough attitude toward them.

Relations with the Muslim world could resemble those that once existed between the United States and the Soviet Union. It is also important to avoid using labels like "axis of evil" when talking about Iraq or Palestine or other hot spots, as American political scientists are in the habit of doing.

Secondly, hopefully, over time, the Islamists will see the uselessness of perpetrating such monstrous acts of terrorism as the attacks on New York, Madrid, and London. Once the Islamists feel sure that they are not alone in their fight against the "hateful West," and that in this fight they have the backing of the Muslim population at large, their resistance, though tough and aggressive, will not be as inhuman as before.

But then, if we don't want the Muslim resistance to be inhuman, we must by all means prevent a U.S. invasion of Iran.

16. Central asia: geostrategic survey

Internal terrains of Asia were always perceived as a remote periphery and, at the same time, as a place of concentration of steppe hordes capable of sweeping over the main centres of human civilization. Geopolitically, Central Asia is an area that separates vital centres of two nuclear powers - the Russian Federation (RF) and China - and the place of intersection of major geopolitical massifs - the Eurasian, Islamic, Chinese, and Indian. The fate of Asia at large depends on whether any new, synthesizing Asian model of order will eventually take shape here. The equilibrium of propensities and balances of the regional countries is incomplete, hence one can expect potential clashes of global interests of great powers for domination in the region.

Central Asia has no access to the great oceans, and its communications with world markets relate to inland transport and energy routes. This makes countries of the region dependent upon stability of their relationship with adjacent states as well as on security of communications. Due to unfavourable conditions the economy of the region is not self-sufficient, and its development to a great extent depends on the ability of local states to integrate into the global economic system. All that determines the main features of the regional countries' behaviour as regards RF, the West, China, Islamic countries, which has to be flexible, deliberate, built on compromise and balancing between different interests.

After the collapse of the soviet system the Central Asian region (CAR) has turned into a new scene of action of various geopolitical forces that have began the great game for domination here. The region is attractive with its available resources and geostrategic position in the very centre of the Eurasian continent on the intersection of critical transport routes. In general, one can speak of the renewed phenomenon of the Central Asian geopolitics, which seemed to have seized to exist after this area was invaded by the Bolshevik troops in 1920s. The Afghan scenario proper was to finally solve the issue of Moscow's domination in this region, however local forces entered the geopolitical scene and succeeded in preventing the realization of interests of soviet military superpower.

Geopolitical situation in the Central Asian region seems somewhat more optimistic compared, say, to the Balkans and the Caucasus where the newly formed states were involved into lasting internal and external conflicts. There have been no considerable interethnic or interstate clashes in CAR except the conflict in Tadjikistan. Countries of the region have managed to manifest the required flexibility in interstate relations as well as to achieve a certain level of internal stabilization. External forces here have not been strong enough to present a threat to regional stability. Moscow, that had traditionally exercised its control over Central Asia, in early 1990s did not manifest sufficient interest in developments in the region while the interest of other countries was here rather symbolic. One way or another, political elites of the regional states obtained certain time to strengthen their power and get established on the world arena.