German Economy, Once Europe’s Leader, Now Looks Like Laggard

The downshift in the emerging markets is leaving Germany vulnerable — and, by extension, Europe.

As many businesses in the region struggled just to tread water in recent years, German companies prospered by selling the goods and technology that emerging countries needed to become more modern economies. As they did, Germany’s strength served as a counterweight to the economic malaise, financial turmoil and Greek debt drama that dragged down many European countries.

Now, Germany, which accounts for the largest share of the European economy, is looking like the laggard. Compared with the economies of other countries in the region, Germany’s has been more deeply tethered to emerging markets. And the political climate is only adding to the uncertainty, as Germany deals with a wave of migrants and a potential exit of Britain from the European Union.

Against that backdrop, the country’s export engine is sputtering, while business confidence is eroding.

As exports have slipped, the mood in Germany has turned glum.

Pessimists outnumbered optimists in February for the first time since late 2014, according to the survey of business managers by the Ifo Institute in Munich, which is considered a reliable predictor of the growth. Although there was a small uptick in March, manufacturers remain wary. If confidence remains weak, they are likely to cut back plans to invest in new equipment or hire people, prompting growth to slow.

The New York Times, April 5^th, 2016

NOTES

to tread waters (idiom) – 1) держаться на плаву 2)топтаться на месте, буксовать

Useful terms and expressions

• to struggle – 1) находиться в трудном положении 2) прилагать усилия 3) с трудом удаваться

• a laggard – отстающий

• to tether – связывать, привязывать, сковывать

• a downshift – снижение, замедление темпов

• vulnerable – уязвимый, незащищенный

• malaise – неблагоприятное состояние/ситуация

• turmoil – потрясение, нестабильность, кризис

• to drag down –ослаблять, тормозить

• to sputter – давать сбой, выдыхаться

• to outnumber – численно превосходить, превышать количественно

• uptick – рост, поступательное развитие, увеличение

• wary – осторожный, осмотрительный

TEXT 8

Translate the article into Russian orally.

Why recovery is now back in Vogue

Some see signs of hope in the fact that we are scoffing less chocolate. In the depths of recession, consumers turn to affordable treats such as Kit Kats, Dairy Milks and Snickers.

In 2009, the darkest and most bitter year for Ireland Inc, the average Irish person gobbled up 260 bars, but that has fallen to 230.

Such a drop in the chocolate index is seen as a sign of economic recovery, but that is not the only indicator that things are looking up, at least in Dublin. In some pockets of south Co Dublin, it is as if the recession and the crash had never happened. A typical semi-detached house goes on the market, and up to 60 people turn up promptly to view it. We could be back in 2001 as prices resume their upward curve. It's a far cry from the situation in many country areas where this week's Central Statistics Office survey showed property prices continue to drop. Here there are fewer green shoots.

The mini property boom is largely a Dublin phenomenon, but economists see it as a sign of recovery.

The optimistic signs are not confined to property. Growing tourism and surging hotel bookings, the continued growth of hi-tech companies, the good weather and a small but steady decline in unemployment are contributing to a slightly more positive mood.

New car sales are still a long way off the peak of the boom, but luxury marques such as Audi and BMW have enjoyed an increase this year. Dublin Airport is now becoming busy again, and traffic in July was up 7% on last year.

Economist Anthony Foley refuses to go overboard with talk of a return to the Celtic Tiger years, preferring to talk of "cautious optimism". He sees signs of spending power in the economy with the continued popularity of events such as music concerts.

Economists hope the slow recovery in Dublin will spread to the rest of country.

According to Mr Foley, we are still not out of the woods yet, but at least in the distance we can see the edge of the forest.

NOTES

1. Ireland Inc – компании Ирландии

2. Celtic Tiger economy - A term given to Ireland in the 1990s during an average economic growth rate of 6.5 percent. The first boom ended when the Internet bubble burst in 2001. A second boom in Ireland in 2004 is referred to as the Celtic Tiger 2. This ended in 2008. - Прозвище «кельтский тигр» Ирландия получила еще в 1994 году, когда экономист инвестиционного банка Morgan Stanley Кевин Гарднер отметил таким образом высокие темпы роста в этой стране, сопоставимые с показателями восточноазиатских «тигров» (Южной Кореи, Сингапура, Гонконга и Тайваня). Период бурного роста, низких темпов инфляции и снижения уровня безработицы уже в конце 1990-х получил название «ирландское экономическое чудо».

3. …luxury marques such as Audi and BMW have enjoyed an increase this year - в таких предложениях сказуемое, выраженное глаголом enjoy, как правило, переводится словами “отмечалось”, “произошло”, “наблюдалось”. Если за таким сказуемым идет дополнение в виде существительного, обозначающего “увеличение” чего-то, то в этом случае глагол опускается, а сказуемым становится это дополнение.