Useful terms and expressions

• hard landing – резкое снижение темпов экономического роста

• soft landing – постепенное замедление темпов экономического роста

• rare earths – редкоземельные элементы

• to bottom out – начинать расти (после падения), вступать в фазу оживления (после экономического спада)

TEXT 7

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China Dispute Hits Japanese Exports

Japan suffered another sharp decline in exports to China in November, reflecting a slowdown in Chinese growth and the lingering damage of a territorial dispute.

Falling exports to China helped push the trade deficit to ¥953.4bn ($11.3bn), the third-largest monthly deficit in more than three decades, and the fifth consecutive decline. The trade deficit for this year is on course to be an annual record, given that the cumulative deficit in the year to date is ¥6.8tn. The record trade deficit so far was the ¥2.6tn posted in 1980.

The deteriorating trade balance will put pressure on Shinzo Abe, Japan’s incoming prime minister, to fulfil his campaign promises to reflate the economy, weaken the Japanese currency and return the country to a growth path. Mr Abe has vowed to tackle the yen’s strength, which hurts Japanese exporters’ competitiveness and decreases their overseas profits. But Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS, said a weaker yen, while boosting exports, would make imports more expensive, hurting the trade balance.

Japanese exports have suffered from a persistently strong yen since 2007, while imports have risen in part due to the shift from nuclear energy to fossil fuels, which Japan must buy from overseas, following the Fukushima disaster.

Exports to China fell 14.5 per cent to ¥859bn, in the second consecutive double-digit monthly decline. The impact of the Chinese slowdown was reflected in the 75 per cent drop in exports of construction and mining equipment, while that of the territorial dispute appears to have been a factor behind the 69 per cent drop in vehicle exports to China.

By contrast, exports to the US rose 5.3 per cent, making it the leading destination of Japanese goods for the month. Exports to the US have risen consecutively for the past 13 months. Japanese exports to the EU have fallen for the past 14 months, with products such as vehicles and construction machinery suffering the largest declines.

Analysts expect a gradual recovery in Japanese exports in the new year, as global demand improves.

The Financial Times, December 18^th, 2012

Useful terms and expressions

• cumulative deficit – совокупный дефицит

• to deteriorate – ухудшать(ся), снижать(ся), уменьшать(ся)

• to reflate the economy – возобновить рост темпов инфляции, восстановить темпы роста экономики

• fossil fuel – минеральное топливо

TEXT 8

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China Trade Suffers on Global Fears

Chinese exports slowed sharply in November in a reminder of the external headwinds that are blowing against the country’s economic recovery.

Exports increased 2.9 per cent year on year, down from an 11.6 per cent pace in October and well short of forecasts for another similarly strong performance. Imports were unchanged from a year earlier, slowing from a 2.4 per cent increase in October, though a pick-up in the volume of key commodity imports was consistent with more positive domestic investment and consumption data.

That resulted in a $19.6bn trade surplus in November for China, its lowest in five months. The weak trade figures were a reminder that for all of Beijing’s efforts to rev up the economy, China is still exposed to the risks of sluggish demand in Europe and the US. Smaller inflows through trade channels will act as a drag on the Chinese recovery, which has been driven primarily by a boost in government spending on infrastructure projects in recent months. But the negative impact may be limited since the role of exports in powering Chinese growth has steadily diminished since the global financial crisis.

Domestic demand, both from investment and consumption, now accounts for more than 90 per cent of China’s gross domestic product. The numbers reinforced expectations that after slowing for seven straight quarters, the world’s second-largest economy is on track to finish 2012 with a moderate rebound towards 8 per cent annual growth.

Ma Xiaoping, an economist with HSBC, said the weak export reading would encourage the Chinese government to continue its fiscal and monetary support for the economy. “Lacklustre exports pose the biggest downside risk to China’s ongoing recovery,” she said.

While the export outlook will continue to remain shaky in the coming months, a sustained recovery of the Chinese economy is expected to filter through into stronger imports.

The Financial Times, December 10^th, 2012